Home runs are killing baseball

Home runs are, and always have been, one of the most thrilling experiences in all of sport. Of all the ways that you can score in baseball, hitting the ball out of the park is the one that gets your heart racing.

America’s pastime has changed very little over the past century and a half, and at the same time it has changed beyond all comprehension. With the heart of the game still beating, perhaps with clogged arteries, but alive nonetheless, there has been much hand-wringing over the impending doom posed by recent tinkering with the game, such as pitch clocks and “dejuiced” balls. But there is a larger shadow hanging over baseball.

My only love sprung from my only hate, too early seen unknown, and known too late! Juliet may have been pining for her Romeo, but the same idea fits home runs in baseball. We all love to see them. We have spent decades trying to perfect the swing, scout the talent, find our way to more and more home runs. And then, almost without knowing it, we have stumbled upon the formula.

“Just put the ball in play.”

“Take what they give you.”

“Patience. A walk is as good as a hit.”

These are timeless baseball adages, repeated throughout the land in every ballpark, from Yankee Stadium to the PeeWee Leagues. We have all heard them as we step to the plate, said them to someone else at the plate, and fundamentally believe them as the secret of success, not only in baseball, but in life. Strange, then, that the Major Leagues no longer share this view.

Home run hitters tend to strike out a lot. This has always been true. Reggie Jackson struck out more than any other player. High averages are held by guys who don’t swing for the fences. And the high batting average was at one time the gold standard by which hitters were measured. No longer.

Putting the ball in play has been sacrificed on the altar of the home run. Why run the bases when you can trot them? Numerically, it makes sense. But baseball, and I know that I will be skewered for this, but baseball has got to be about more than numbers.

Getting rid of the shift is a sop offered to the poor batting choices made by big league teams stretching back nearly twenty years. Teams long ago decided that it didn’t matter if a batter could not hit consistently or had trouble with a particular pitch or even a hole in their swing, all of which were fatal flaws in previous generations, just so long as they could launch the ball into the stratosphere when they connected. Baseball has become Happy Gilmore. He can’t skate, can’t pass, but man! What a slapshot!

In a previous generation, the so-called “dejuicing” of the balls this season would have little to no effect on the game. Hitters would put the ball in play and the number of singles, doubles, and even triples would not change at all. A couple fewer home runs would pass almost unnoticed.

But this generation has loaded all of their eggs into the home run basket. Unable to simply put the ball in play, they have had their only weapon blunted. Across the league, the batting average is .231, the lowest ever recorded. Think about that. Even in the dead-ball era of the late 19th century, players hit better than they are hitting right now.

Players and those in the media who have invested their careers into this home-run-at-all-costs style of play are quick to blame the balls on this drop in production. But it is more the result of two decades of bad hitting fundamentals coming home to roost. Many of today’s stars were not even born when this shift began. They know no other way to play the game. And so, they continue swinging for the fences and blaming the ball.

That is not to say that the balls currently used are sub-par. They are and they need to be replaced before the All-Star break. But when you rely on exit velocity and launch angles to determine whether your hitting is good or not, then you have a serious blind spot. Launch angles of 0º to 15º fall fair more times than not.

Everyone loves to see home runs. Just don’t sacrifice good hitting to get one.