MLB draft lottery: What is the order of teams for the pro baseball draft in July 2024?
The Guardians had a 2.0 % chance of winning the No. 1 pick, while the Reds had only 0.9 %. Still, they finished winning the best pre-draft position slots.
The MLB held a lottery at the Winter Meetings to decide which team would get the first pick in the 2024 Draft. This was only the second time such a lottery was conducted. The latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections as part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games. Although the three worst teams had an equal chance of getting the top selection, a team’s odds of getting a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records.
Who won the lottery?
The Cleveland Guardians were the winners, followed by the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies. This will be the first time Cleveland picks No. 1 overall in the MLB Draft; they’ve picked 2nd overall five times (1992 Paul Shuey, 1988 Mark Lewis, 1986 Greg Swindell, 1972 Rick Manning, 1970 Steve Dunning)
This year, the Oakland A’s, Kansas City Royals, and Colorado Rockies had the highest probability of securing the #1 overall selection, with each team having an 18.3% chance. The Chicago White Sox (14.7%) and St. Louis Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.
The chances of the Guardians receiving the top overall pick and the Reds getting the No. 2 pick were extremely low, at approximately 0.02% or 5,000 to 1 odds. Surprisingly, the Reds drew near the top of the league, as their chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. Although they did not secure the top pick, they jumped to second place despite having the 14th-worst record this year.
The draft lottery only applies to the first round. From the second round onwards, the pick order is determined based on the prior season’s standings, except for compensatory and competitive balance selections.