The key stat that shows why the Blue Jays will probably win the 2025 World Series
After a dominant Game 5 win, the numbers show history is firmly on Toronto’s side heading into Game 6.
The 2025 World Series has reached its most thrilling moment. Game 6 will decide whether the Toronto Blue Jays can finally capture their first championship in more than three decades, or if the Los Angeles Dodgers can push the series to a winner-take-all Game 7.
Toronto holds a 3-2 lead after a commanding 6-1 win in Game 5 at Dodger Stadium. The series now shifts back to the Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays will look to close it out in front of their home crowd.
Trey Yesavage delivers a record-breaking performance
Rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage was nearly untouchable in Game 5, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out 12 and issuing no walks. His performance not only silenced the Dodgers’ lineup but also etched his name in World Series history, breaking Don Newcombe’s 1949 record for most strikeouts by a rookie in a single Fall Classic game.
Early power surge sets the tone
Davis Schneider and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wasted no time giving Toronto the upper hand, blasting back-to-back home runs to start the game. The Blue Jays became the first team ever to open a World Series game with consecutive home runs, instantly quieting the crowd in Los Angeles.
History favors Toronto
The numbers suggest the Blue Jays are in prime position. In best-of-seven series tied 2-2, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to take the series nearly 68% of the time (46 out of 68). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams that win Game 5 on the road to take a 3-2 lead have clinched the championship 74% of the time.
In any best-of-seven series tied 2-2, the Game 5 winner has won the series 46 of 68 times (67.6%)
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 30, 2025
In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams taking a 3-2 lead by winning Game 5 on the road – before returning home for Games 6 and 7 – have gone on to win the series 20 of 27… https://t.co/ESqRcsK83o
Current odds to win the 2025 World Series
After taking Game 5 and gaining a 3-2 edge, Toronto has become the clear favorite to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Toronto Blue Jays: -235
- Los Angeles Dodgers: +195
With the series heading back to Canada, the Blue Jays stand just one victory away from ending 32 years of waiting and cementing one of the most memorable postseason runs in franchise history.
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