The problem with Shohei Ohtani’s MVP run

Shohei Ohtani has always been the exception to the rule. The first truly great two-way player in over a century, he has been bucking trends since landing on these shores. And now he is lining up to crack another one wide open.

Conventional wisdom in baseball is that a designated hitter cannot be the MVP. The clue is in the name. Most valuable player. Designated hitter. They don’t play a position so are not qualified for the title.

There is a reason why pitchers don’t win the MVP, and that is because they have their own award in the Cy Young. And hitters have any number of batting titles to aim for, including that holiest of holies, the triple crown. But to be the most valuable player, you have to play.

Or do you?

Nobody has raised the question with anything like the urgency of Shohei Ohtani. He is a troubling prospect for the conventional wisdom, because he is having a year with the bat that could end up being a historic one. With three weeks left in the regular season, he is sitting at 46 home runs and 46 stolen bases, already unique. He stands a very real prospect of becoming the first player in major league history to go 50-50 in a single season.

Of course there are caveats to Ohtani’s season. The adoption of the DH role by the National League is what has made Ohtani’s season possible. Just a few years ago, he would have been out of the lineup, unable to throw a baseball. And MLB rule changes limiting pickoff attempts have made base stealing much, much easier than it has historically been, which could be seen to have inflated Ohtani’s numbers.

But you can only play what is in front of you, and Shohei Ohtani has played a blinder. If he achieves that incredible 50-50 mark, or wins the triple crown, then it may be impossible to argue against giving him the MVP award. When all the dust is settled on the 2024 baseball season, the player that has been most valuable to his team should win.

Of course, that is not exactly how it works. Public perception and popularity have a huge hand in the vote, and nobody in baseball is more popular than Shohei Ohtani. Even if you hate the Dodgers, you just can’t feel anything but good about Shotime. He plays the game the way it should be played: with all of his heart.

The question, then, comes back to the same one that has dogged the conversation from the beginning. Can a designated hitter win the NVP award? Should they?

Historically, several have finished second or third in the voting, but so far nobody has stepped over the finish line. Is Ohtani more valuable to the Dodgers today than Yordan Álvarez was to the ’22 Astros? Or Big Papi to the Red Sox in ’05 and ’06? Or Paul Molitor to the ’93 Blue Jays? The Astros and Blue Jays won the World Series those years, and Ortiz had seasons that likely cemented his place in the Hall of Fame.

It may take something truly extraordinary for Ohtani to take home the MVP award this season. If the Dodgers don’t win the World Series, or he doesn’t win the triple crown, or he falls short of that 50-50 goal, then there might be enough doubt to deny him what would be his third MVP.

Let’s face reality, Shohei is a very long way behind in any triple crown race. It would take a miracle for him to make up that ground. And as for the Dodgers winning the World Series? Well, as much as Dodger fans don’t want to admit it, that might need something nearly as miraculous. For such a great team, they always seem to fall apart in October. Smart money is against it.

So that just leaves the 50-50. Setting a historic MLB record, no matter what caveats there may be to it, would make Shohei Ohtani the name to beat in the MVP race. And if that happens, then even the doubters might just have to tip their hat to the man.