Where will Shohei Ohtani land?

Rumors swirl, and twist, and come back again when it concerns the trade potential of Shohei Ohtani. With the intense speculation about his possible landing spots, most vociferously from the Dodgers and Yankees factions, it is perhaps prudent to take a good look at the lay of the land.

Ready? Ok, here goes.

When you are considering Shohei Ohtani’s future, it is really a question of two parts. First part is whether or not the Angels will trade him away this season. And the second part is where he will end up once he hits free agency at the end of next season. It is important to see the distinction, because these are two vastly different prospects.

Firstly, will he be traded this season, and if so, to whom?

While the focus in the press is on Ohtani’s desperation to win being the driving force behind a trade, this is the very element that almost certainly excludes the Yankees from the running. Sorry Yankee fans. But the fact is that the pinstripes are wallowing in fourth place in the AL East, and even the addition of Ohtani won’t guarantee them a spot in the post season. In fact, he is better positioned for a wild card spot in the playoffs staying put where he is with the Angels.

A late season trade to the Dodgers is almost certainly out of the question as well, but for a different reason. Shohei Ohtani is in the running for AL MVP this season, as he has been for most of the last four seasons. Jumping to a National League team would end that chase, and for a player who wants accolades, that is simply non-negotiable.

If he is traded this season, it will be to an American League team with a shot at the World Series. So we are talking about the Texas Rangers, the Houston Astros, or the Tampa Bay Rays.

Which of those will land him? Well, there are rumors swirling that Texas are pulling out all the stops, putting together a massive offer for the Angels, and Houston is in the hunt as well, even if they do have less capital laying around to offer. But the favorite at the moment seems to be Tampa.

My feeling, however, is that he will not be traded at all. The Angels are still in the playoff race. They have also made clear on several occasions that they were intent on putting together an offer that would keep Ohtani on their roster for the foreseeable future, up to and including a record offering. And Shohei has said in the past that as much as he wants to win, he wants to win with the Angels.

Now let’s consider the second part of the conundrum. Where will Shohei Ohtani land long term?

Even if Ohtani is traded this season, any team that gets him will have him for only one season before having to enter the feeding frenzy that is awaiting when he hits free agency after the 2024 season. The money is expected to be eye-watering: somewhere in the $600 million range.

The teams who can best absorb this payroll, naturally, are the ones who are consistently in the discussion. The Yankees have historically paid big and bought the best talent in the league, as have the Dodgers. But there are also deep pockets at the Mets as well, throwing the entire system into disarray over the past few seasons. Most teams, in fact, can find the money somewhere for a talent like Ohtani. It would be simpler to list the teams who can’t.

But if we accept the premise that winning is front and center in Ohtani’s decision making process, and there is no reason to doubt that, then we have to consider the teams who have long-term winning potential. And there are a few surprises to be had when you look at this without prejudice or malice.

Neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers are the best bet long-term potential World Series winners.

The Yankees haven’t been to the Fall Classic in 14 years. The Dodgers made it for the first time in almost 30 years back in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The only one of those that they won, in 2020, was tellingly a shortened season due to covid. Had the MLB played a full slate of games, it is highly unlikely that the Dodgers would have won, prone as they famously are for giving everything to make the playoffs and then entering postseason with nothing in the tank.

If Ohtani wants to win not only once, but have several bites at the apple, he should be looking at (brace yourselves) the Astros, the Braves, the Padres, the Rays, and somewhat shockingly the Reds. There are outliers, of course, teams like the Rangers and Phillies, who are currently building something special, but whether that will mean long term success is yet to be seen.

The Braves and Astros are true MLB dynasties, regardless of how you feel emotionally about either of those teams. They are powerhouses and will be in the World Series many times to come over the next decade, making them the safest sure-thing for Ohtani. The Rays and Reds have perhaps the most promising system of prospects in baseball, and could shape up to be perennial contenders in the next five years.

When you factor in who has the money to spare, plus who is a serious contender for titles, plus whether or not Shohei wants to leave the west coast (a common argument for those favoring a move to the Dodgers), then you have to think that the Padres would be a better bet for winning Ohtani’s services long term.

But of course, all of this is conjecture. In baseball, as in life, nothing is done until everything is done. And the race for Shohei Ohtani is just getting warmed up.