Could Jaime Jáquez Jr be crowned NBA Rookie of the Year?

Jaime Jáquez Jr is, arguably, the biggest surprise of the NBA 2023-24 season. He had gained a solid grounding during his four years at UCLA but his entry route to the league did not receive much attention. In general, great performances are not expected from the 18th pick. At least not automatically. But Jáquez defies logic.

In less than a month, ‘Triple J’ is already a key component of the Miami Heat. He has locked down a starting role, plays more than 30 minutes a night and nearly every play points to him as the finisher in the paint. His spectacular statistical line speaks for itself: 34 games, 13.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 50.4% field effectiveness, and 13.7 rating. Jarrett Allen, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even LeBron James are just a few who have already suffered from his footwork and lethal mid-range shot.

The big question now is: Can Jaime Jáquez Jr’s performances between now and the end of the season earn him the Rookie of the Year award? How realistic are his chances? Right now, he is well placed. The most recent Kia Rookie Ladder, published on 3 January, places the Mexican as the third top favorite, behind Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma Thunder’s star center, and Victor Wembanyama. Both entered the NBA in high draft positions: Holmgren, 2nd in 2022 (he took a year to debut due to a ligament injury), and ‘Wemby’, 1st in 2023. Others with better ranking have been left far behind, and below expectations - such as Scoot Henderson (3rd in the draft, 8th in the ladder), or Brandon Miller (2nd and 4th), who is far from delivering what was expected of him with the Charlotte Hornets in spite of his good numbers.

Wemby the bookies’ favorite

However the betting houses do not offer as much hope for the Mexican’s cause. The portal VegasInsider, which compiles odds from six of the main betting platforms, also places Jáquez Jr in third position, behind Holmgren and Wemby, by some distance: his best odds are +3000, compared to +140 for the French phenomenon and -225 for the center from Minneapolis. However, it seems that the contest only includes these three names. The rest of the rookies barely have a look-in (all, beyond +15000).

In terms of stats, the ex-UCLA undergraduate can compete with the other two: Wemby averages a double-double this season, with 19.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 44.9 shooting percentage and 19.6 rating. His average of 3.2 in blocks is laughable, and an additional factor. Holmgren meanwhile registers 17.4 points, 7.5 boards, 2.6 touchdown passes, 54.4% field goals and the highest total efficiency of the three: 21.4. One fact against Jáquez: Chet and Victor have been starters in 100% of the games they have played this season. In favor of Triple J, the Heat’s positive record (20-14), which is the main argument that could hit Wemby, since the Spurs are, by far, the worst team in the West (5-29).

The ROY up for debate

Each player’s highlights reel will also undoubtedly influence perception and, therefore, the voting. All three have quality material so far. Holmgren’s incredible 3-pointer, with the mark of Andrew Wiggins, to tie a thriller against the Warriors (117-117) in the last second; Jáquez’s show on Christmas Day (31 points and 10 rebounds to defeat the Sixers); the spectacular duel between Giannis and Wemby in which the Frenchman successfully opposed the Greek with a definitive recital that It included self-passes from behind and with the board... to name but a few. Jáquez’s underdog narrative could convince some, but the hype for Holmgren and Wembanyama, two true revolutionaries of the game, could affect the Mexican’s prospects. The uniqueness of the two frontrunners, very complete on both sides of the floor and with endless skills and weapons at their disposal, could be more striking than the performance of a player attached to a more classic, more fundamental, more academic basketball like JJJ.

But miracles exist. And a lot could happen between now and the end of the season.