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Suns vs. Clippers game 3 odds and predictions: Who is the favorite?

The first two games played in Phoenix resulted in a split between the two teams, with the LA team taking Game 1 in an upset, while the Suns won Game 2.

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) controls the ball against Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35)
Mark J. RebilasUSA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

The playoff series between the 4th-seeded and 5th-seeded teams is typically the most competitive matchup of the opening round of the postseason, and the Suns and Clippers have certainly lived up to this expectation.

However, both teams are grappling with injuries to key players. Suns point guard Chris Paul is currently listed as questionable after sustaining a right-hand injury during Game 2. Although the injury did not limit his minutes, he underwent X-rays after the game as a precautionary measure. While the results returned negative, Paul only participated in light shooting during Wednesday’s practice. His availability for Game 3 remains uncertain, although head coach Monty Williams expressed optimism that he can play.

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Meanwhile, the status of backup guard Cam Payne is unclear. Payne is nursing a back injury and has yet to appear in any games in the series. The team lists him as questionable, but Williams has not provided any updates on his condition.

On the other hand, LA will continue to miss the services of their star forward, Paul George. PG-13 has been out of action since March 21st and is expected to sit out for the entire opening round of the playoffs.

Phoenix Suns

Due to the necessity of relying on their star players, Phoenix is expected to continue to do so, especially since they consider the Clippers their most challenging opponents until the conference finals. To secure a win, the Suns’ strategy will likely revolve around a combination of 60-70 points from Booker and Durant, with an additional 30 points from Deandre Ayton and Paul, considering the lackluster performance of their bench players.

Game 2 showcased the impressive offensive capabilities of the Phoenix Suns when they are performing at their best. Despite taking an extraordinary amount of long midrange shots, they could convert those shots with a points-per-possession efficiency that matches or surpasses many teams’ spot-up 3-point shooting.

They also demonstrated a more assertive approach in blitzing Leonard during the pick-and-roll. Despite Kawhi’s expected dominance, this strategy will likely result in numerous situations where a Clippers player must navigate a defense in a motion to make a play.

LA Clippers

Although Kawhi Leonard will likely excel in exploiting the in-between spaces, the remaining Clippers must shift the balance in their favor to secure a victory. This entails prioritizing shots at the rim, offensive rebounds, and, most crucially, high-frequency 3-point attempts.

The Clippers’ optimal opportunity to gain control of the series at home and mitigate the talent discrepancy created by Paul George’s absence lies in their 3-point shooting. While the team boasts several players who can deliver from beyond the arc, midseason acquisition Eric Gordon provides the most practical combination of volume and accuracy.

The key for the Clippers to win Game Three is to defend against Phoenix’s tactics intended to create opportunities for them to attack the mid-range with space. While the prevailing defense in the modern NBA is focused on closing down three-point shooters and deploying an interior defender, this strategy may not be effective against a team like Phoenix that can effortlessly sink 15-footers.

Suns vs. Clippers odds and predictions

  • Suns vs. Clippers spread: Suns -7.5
  • Suns vs. Clippers over/under: 228 points
  • Suns vs. Clippers money line: Suns -365, Clippers +285
  • LAC: The Clippers are 22-20 against the spread in road games
  • PHX: The Suns are 22-19-1 against the spread in home games