The absurd injury rule that cost Jalen Williams $47 million

Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder opening the season with one of the best starts in NBA history, their second-biggest star, Jalen Williams, has yet to return to the court after 18 games.

The forward is still recovering from wrist surgery, and for now, it seems his absence isn’t being felt. Oklahoma City continues to win without him, and Williams is in no rush to return; his teammates are carrying the load. The team’s situation is excellent, but on an individual level, this prolonged absence is likely to cost the young forward a great deal of money: up to 47 million dollars.

To understand why he stands to lose so much, it is necessary to understand a particular clause in NBA contract rules. Williams has just completed his third season, and as a former first-round pick, he became eligible this summer to sign a contract extension worth up to 25 percent of the team’s salary cap. He did so, agreeing to a five-year deal worth 240 million dollars.

Thanks to the Derrick Rose Rule, if a player with this contract structure has already been selected to an All-NBA Team or has won Defensive Player of the Year in two of the previous three seasons, the maximum salary increases to 30 percent of the cap. If a player has not yet achieved these milestones, as is the case with Williams, the contract can still include conditional increases for future awards. Evan Mobley followed this path; after his third season he signed an extension, then won Defensive Player of the Year in his fourth. His contract automatically escalated, and the added percentage earned him an extra 45 million dollars.

If Williams were named to the All-NBA Third Team this season, his salary would increase to 26 percent of the cap. A Second Team selection would have raised it to 27 percent, and a First Team, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year nod would have pushed it all the way to 30 percent. His current deal would have grown to 287 million dollars. However, he can no longer qualify: if he returns next season, the maximum number of games he could play is 64. Two years ago, the NBA introduced a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for major individual awards. His potential contract bonus has disappeared.

The irony becomes even clearer when considering that Williams was already named to the All-NBA Third Team last season; he simply achieved it too early. If he had missed games then and started this season healthy, he would have qualified for the increased percentage. The order is the only factor that matters. It is a regulation that feels illogical, yet remains firmly in place.

For a player to qualify for the Rose Rule immediately upon signing their first contract, they must be selected to an All-NBA team in both their second and third seasons. Luka Doncic is the only player ever to do this. All others who have benefited — aside from Derrick Rose himself — earned the boost based on their fourth-season performance. Williams was too good too soon, and despite exceeding the rule’s expectations, lost out financially. Jayson Tatum experienced something similar; he made All-NBA Third Team in his third season but missed out in his fourth, costing him an additional 33 million dollars.

Williams will still earn 240 million dollars, so he will hardly be struggling. The real beneficiary of this twist of fate is the Thunder, and by extension, the balance of power in the NBA. Rival teams would undoubtedly prefer the Shai–Williams–Chet trio to be as expensive as possible, forcing general manager Sam Presti into difficult roster decisions. This is how dynasties often collapse — the salary cap tightens, and star players must be traded, resulting in moves that reshape the league. Instead, Oklahoma City will likely have almost 50 million dollars more in cap flexibility.

Once again, fortune favours the Thunder. Presti’s management remains exceptional, and the rewards may only be beginning. If the Clippers, Jazz, and 76ers miss the playoffs, Oklahoma City could have three lottery picks in the 2026 draft. Three first-round selections for a franchise that has already built a title contender is the sort of foundation that can create a dynasty.

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A season that already looked extraordinary continues to surpass expectations. Still missing Jalen Williams, who will only make the team stronger when healthy, and now with a substantial financial advantage for the years ahead, the Thunder appear to have no ceiling.

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