The Lakers puzzle

Monday night marks the official start of NBA free agency, a pivotal moment in shaping rosters for the upcoming season. While blockbuster moves increasingly come via trades and teams no longer prioritize clearing massive cap space, free agency remains a vital mechanism - fueling trades, filling key rotation spots, and setting the tone for the offseason.

Among the teams under the spotlight: the Los Angeles Lakers. Their situation is complex, and the full picture won’t be clear until GM Rob Pelinka - who earned some breathing room with the blockbuster Luka Doncic trade - makes his next moves. After two years of criticism for inactivity, Pelinka now faces a high-stakes summer.

The urgency is real. LeBron James is about to turn 41 and enter his 23rd NBA season, surpassing Vince Carter for the longest career in league history. Meanwhile, Doncic is preparing for his first full season in purple and gold. Still stung by criticism from his Dallas days, Doncic is eligible for an extension and eager to prove his worth at age 26 - a point in his career when he can’t afford to be anything less than a contender. After reaching the NBA Finals in 2024, he was traded and bounced in the first round in 2025, missing both the All-Star Game and All-NBA honors for the first time since 2019.

The Lakers finished last season with a strong 50–32 record, good for third in a stacked Western Conference. The post-trade version of the team, with Doncic in the fold, looked like a legitimate threat. But that promise evaporated in the playoffs, where they were eliminated 1-4 by the Timberwolves. The early exit exposed glaring weaknesses - depth, athleticism, and overall talent - that must be addressed for the Lakers to be true title contenders.

Complicating matters further is the franchise’s ongoing sale, reportedly valued at over $10 billion - a record figure in American sports. The Buss family is poised to relinquish control after nearly 50 years, with billionaire Mark Walter (known for revitalizing the Dodgers) expected to take over. His arrival signals a new era of investment, modernization, and accountability for a front office that has lagged behind in innovation and structure.

LeBron and Doncic futures

The first major domino? LeBron. He holds a $52.6 million player option for the 2025-26 season, and the deadline to opt in is Sunday. According to ESPN’s Dave McMenamin, the 40-year-old is expected to exercise the option, setting himself up for free agency next summer.

Despite swirling rumors, it’s become increasingly clear that LeBron isn’t retiring - and likely isn’t leaving the Lakers either. If he finishes next season in L.A., it will mark his longest stint with any team (eight years), surpassing his initial seven-year run in Cleveland. While there’s still a chance he could decline the option and negotiate a longer-term deal - possibly a 1+1 structure he’s used before to maintain flexibility - all signs point to him locking in the $52.6 million for one more year.

Last summer, LeBron offered to take a pay cut if the Lakers could land a marquee name. He later adjusted his salary to help the team avoid luxury tax penalties under the new CBA. This time, however, he’s expected to take the full amount - no discounts, no tweaks.

Doncic’s future in Los Angeles appears all but settled. The Slovenian star has a guaranteed $45.9 million salary for the 2025-26 season and a $48.9 million player option for 2026-27. Starting August 2, he’ll be eligible to sign an extension with the Lakers - and all signs point to him doing just that.

Doncic seems content in L.A., eager to plant the roots he once envisioned in Dallas before the Mavericks abruptly moved on. He’s reportedly excited about the Lakers’ stature and the arrival of new owner Walter, a deep-pocketed, results-driven executive with a track record of success with the Dodgers.

The only question now is what kind of extension Doncic will sign. While he’s eligible for a four-year, $229 million deal, the more likely scenario is a three-year, $165 million extension with a player option in the final year (2028-29). That would allow him to re-enter the market at 29, qualify for the 35% max salary tier, and potentially sign a five-year, $419 million deal - his best financial path after missing out on the historic five-year, $345 million supermax he would’ve signed had he stayed in Dallas.

With LeBron and Doncic seemingly tied down, the biggest question mark in the Lakers’ core is Austin Reaves. The undrafted guard had a breakout regular season but struggled in the playoffs, hampered by a painful toe injury. Despite his value, Reaves declined the maximum extension the Lakers could currently offer - four years, $89.2 million. He’s expected to play out his $13.9 million salary next season, decline his $14.8 million player option for 2026–27, and test free agency.

Reaves, 27, could command a deal in the $30 million per year range. The Lakers could offer him five years and nearly $247 million, while other teams would be limited to four years and around $183 million. While a trade was considered, the Lakers appear committed to keeping him - unless a blockbuster opportunity arises. The front office must now evaluate whether a Doncic-Reaves backcourt can hold up defensively in the playoffs. Offensively, the ceiling is sky-high.

The ongoing search for a center

With LeBron, Doncic, and Reaves likely forming the core, the Lakers still need to address glaring roster gaps—particularly at center. They need more size, athleticism, perimeter shooting, and defensive versatility. Pelinka has acknowledged the urgency.

The lack of depth was exposed in the playoffs, especially in Game 3 against Minnesota, where J.J. Redick played the entire second half without a single substitution - a rarity in today’s NBA. The Lakers nearly stole the game but ran out of gas.

Doncic has made it clear he needs a rim-running, shot-blocking big man to complement his style. The Lakers briefly acquired Mark Williams from Charlotte, but the deal was voided after medical evaluations raised red flags. Williams has since been traded to Phoenix for a similar package: the No. 29 pick in this year’s draft and a protected 2029 first-rounder.

The Lakers remain without a reliable center. Jaxson Hayes fell out of the playoff rotation and is unlikely to return unless on a minimum deal. Top-tier options are expensive and hard to acquire, especially with rival teams aware of L.A.’s desperation. Utah’s Walker Kessler is the dream target, but the Jazz are demanding multiple first-round picks. The Lakers’ trade assets are limited: their 2031 first-rounder, a few pick swaps, sharpshooting rookie Dalton Knecht (who was part of the nixed Williams deal), and several expiring contracts - Rui Hachimura ($18.3m), Gabe Vincent ($11.5m), Maxi Kleber ($11m). Jarred Vanderbilt is also a trade candidate, though his offensive limitations and three years remaining on his deal ($36m) make him less appealing.

Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton is likely out of reach, and the Lakers reportedly inquired about Onyeka Okongwu of the Hawks last season. Robert Williams is another name floated, but his injury history is a concern. That leaves veteran options like Clint Capela (31) and Brook Lopez (37) as more realistic targets.

The Lakers’ cap situation limits them to the taxpayer midlevel exception ($5.7m) unless they shed salary. If LeBron opts in and Dorian Finney-Smith remains on the roster, they won’t have access to the full midlevel ($14m). Capela could be a fit at the lower midlevel, while Lopez might be available on a veteran minimum. Neither is a long-term solution, but both could serve as stopgaps while the Lakers search for a franchise center.

DFS doubts

Another unresolved piece of the Lakers’ offseason puzzle is the status of veteran forward Finney-Smith. Acquired in December for three second-round picks, the 32-year-old could now walk away for nothing. After a disappointing playoff run - followed by ankle surgery - Finney-Smith is reportedly considering declining his $15.3 million player option to test free agency.

DFS previously thrived alongside Doncic in Dallas and remains the archetype of a modern 3-and-D wing: capable of guarding multiple positions and knocking down open threes. He’s exactly the kind of player the Lakers need - and arguably need more of. If he opts out, L.A. could gain access to the full midlevel exception, opening the door to pursue a younger, high-upside replacement like Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Timberwolves are unlikely to retain NAW, and he’s expected to draw interest from nearly every team with full midlevel flexibility.

Still, this may be a case of “a bird in the hand.” Finney-Smith is a known quantity, and the Lakers could regret letting him walk. There’s also a scenario where he returns on a longer-term deal with a lower first-year salary, giving the front office more financial flexibility this summer.

For now, though, the clock is ticking. No major trades have materialized, and the Lakers’ offseason remains clouded by uncertainty. This isn’t a team that’s one or two tweaks away from true contention in the West. That could change quickly - but if it doesn’t, the first full season of the Doncic era may fall short of expectations.

The pressure is mounting. The temptation to hold on to future assets and plan for a post-LeBron rebuild is real - but that future won’t begin this season. For now, the Lakers are stuck in limbo, and the outlook isn’t promising. Could that change in a few weeks? That’s the question hanging over the franchise.

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