The race is on for Wembanyama: Popovich, Pistons, Rockets...

Once the regular season is wrapped up, comes the good news for the teams at the wrong end of the table. Or at least, one of the fews positives when faced with a long summer vacation - whether by design or not. With the Draft lottery looming, it’s one of the things that fails in the structure of the tournament - because in the last two weeks, many teams do not put out their best players in attempt to finish with a worse record but at the same time, have more chances of winning the best picks. While it’s an exercise that is not exactly promoted, once again it has been repeated and, of course, not been resolved. The teams who have nothing left to achieve tend to focus on the next big thing - the number 1 pick in the Draft: Victor Wembanyama.

The process is as follows: only the four best teams are decided by lottery and are elected from the 14 teams that do not make the playoffs. The team with the worst record has the best chance of getting a higher draft pick, but to avoid tanking this doesn’t necessarily mean that the team with the worst record is guaranteed the No. 1 pick. After all four are selected top picks (from the lottery placement system), the remainder of the first round draft order is the reverse of the win-loss record of the remaining teams. Additionally, the lottery does not determine the draft order in subsequent rounds of the draft.

This leaves the Pistons (17-65), Rockets and Spurs (with 22 wins each) as the trio most likely to win No.1, at 14%. The Hornets, with 27 wins, have a 12.5% chance of going from fourth to first. Then there are the Blazers (33 games won and a 10.5% option) and the Magic (34, for a 9%). Those would be the six lowest balances and, therefore, the ones with the highest percentage of securing Wembanyama. But to enter that bid, the Pacers and the Wizards will also be in the lottery (35 victories per head), who share the same record and to determine who will be seventh and who will be eighth in the lottery they will go through a previous draw, dividing thus a 7% and a 6.5% percentage.

The top 10 is completed by the Jazz and the Mavericks, who worked hard to get one of the 10 worst balances and thus have more options to have a selection within the top 10, a protected pick that they would not have to transfer to the Knicks by the agreement they signed in the transfer of Kristaps Porzingis in 2019. The Jazz have a 4.5% chance of reaching number 1, while the options of the Texans are reduced to 3%. The four remaining teams (the positions that go from 11 to 14) will be occupied based on the record achieved. These are the accounts. The objective is clear. Getting a future star generation. Seize the services of a player from another planet: Victor Wembanyama.

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday 16 May.