2023 NCAA March Madness First Round odds and predictions: favorites, possible upsets...
From the favorites, to the potential bracket busters, we’ve got you covered with a look at what to expect and who to expect it from in March Madness’ first round.
The 2023 NCAA Tournament officially began on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, with games in the First Four, but as any hardcore fan will know, the real action starts on Thursday and Friday with first round games scheduled to take place across the entire nation. Indeed, over the next two days, we’re going to see the field go from 64 teams to 32 as college basketball takes center stage.
The March Madness favorites
Houston Cougars
As odds on favorites to win the National Championship - +550 to be exact - the Cougars come into March Madness with a season record of 31-3 following their first defeat in 13 games on Sunday in the ACC Tournament championship game. To be clear, this is a team that ranks in the top-10 in both offense and defense. Their other two losses came against Alabama back in December, a game they lost by 6-points and Temple in January, which was a contest they lost by just 1. Where the numbers are concerned, they’ve allowed only 55.9 points per game, which ranks No. 1 in the nation, and they’ve outscored their opponents by 20 points per game. This is a well-oiled machine that we are talking about.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Though Houston is highly favored, they’re not actually overall No. 1 seed. That honor belongs to Alabama whose odds currently stand at +650. Yet, we’ve got to address the elephant in the room which has nothing to do with the team’s performance on the court, but rather the actions of some its players off of it. Now former player Darius Miles, was recently indicted for the murder of Jamea Harris. His teammate and SEC Player of the Year, Brandon Miller, is now known to be the individual who provided him with the firearm that was used in the shooting which led to Harris’ death. On the other hand, Alabama comes into the tournament with just two losses and having become one of only three teams to beat Houston at home in the last three seasons.
Kansas Jayhawks.
Next in line are the Kansas Jayhawks (+800). Who could forget the way in which they overturned a 15-point deficit to win the 2022 national title game against North Carolina? Led by Jalen Wilson, the Kansas has also seen the likes of NBA bound Gradey Dick and Kevin McCullar Jr. make waves on their way to the ‘big dance.’ With a ‘kill count’ that includes the likes of Duke, Texas, Indiana and Kentucky, the Jayhawks have not been messing around this year. If there is one flaw, it’s the shooting from beyond the arc, which has been 31%.
Purdue Boilermakers
Bringing up the rear, we’ve got the Purdue Boilermakers and it’s got to be said, if there is a standout talent in the tournament, it’s got to be their big man, the 7-foot-4 star, Zach Edey. With an average of 21.9 ppg, 12.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, Edey is quite frankly a shoo-in for MVP. To be clear, 75.5% of his attempts have been made at the rim, which only indicates the kind of dominance that he has displayed. From Marquette to Gonzaga and even Duke, many teams have had to learn the hard way, that Edey requires extra men to mark him, which in turn only leaves players like Fletcher Loyer, to do major damage. If there is a catch, it’s their record coming into the tournament. At 4-4 in their last eight, Purdue has been a victim of its own errors with consistent turnovers. Their lack of success from beyond the arc (32%) has also been an issue. Ultimately, if they can correct those two areas in a short time, they will be more than a handful.
March Madness’ possible upsets and odds
No. 10 Utah State vs No. 7 Missouri
On one side, there are a large amount of folks betting on Utah to win the game, on the other hand, the odds at -1.5 don’t exactly favor them. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that this is the only game in which a double-digit seed is projected to win. Keep an eye on this one.
No. 10 Boise State vs No. 7 Northwestern
Though not projected to get the win, there are quite a few folks who are banking on Boise State to get the win. Indeed, at No. 10 and with odds at -1.5, the Wild Cats are slightly favored over the Broncos, however, it’s got to be said that there really isn’t much separating these two teams.
Have No. 10 USC vs No. 7 Michigan State
During the season Michigan State was viewed as one of the big ones. Now they enter the tournament in the No. 7 spot and they face a USC team that has lost four of its last nine games. Despite their drop in form, one would think this should be business as usual for the Spartans, but the Trojans at +1.5 are expected to be a problem, so choose wisely.
No. 12 Drake vs. No. 5 Miami
Despite the distance between their rankings, the reality is this one is going to be close. At +2.5 Drake are the underdogs, but we’ve got a funny feeling that they’ve got something special in store for the Hurricanes. To be clear, projections have Miami winning this one, but we think this could be one of the tastiest upsets to pick.
No. 11 Providence vs. No. 6 Kentucky
There really aren’t many years when Kentucky has not been in contention for the national championship, which is to say it may be puzzling to see them on this list. Yet, their opponents at +3.5 have proven they can play with the best of them. With an experienced roster Providence - you will recall - were in the Elite Eight just last season. Add to that their time in the Big East and you’ve got a team that has no reason to be overawed by anybody.
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Texas A&M
While it’s true that they did lose to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament final, Penn State who are +2.5 comes into the tournament on good form. Indeed, having won their last five games against teams who are all in the tournament, this team isn’t messing around. In their opponent they will face a team that has also come from a winning streak, so expect this one to be tight.
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 Creighton (+4.5)
The Wolfpack have struggled of late if we’re honest and in truth since February they’ve been 4-5 which isn’t good. Fitting that they are carrying +4.5 odds. On the flip side, March brings with it an opportunity to put things right. To that end, we expect them to go all out when tip off arrives.
No. 12 Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego State
Sitting on +4.5, Charleston are clearly not the favorites in this one, however, there are some projections that have given them an outside shot at beating one of the best teams in the country. Rest assured, if that happens it could well be the upset of the tournament.