College Football Playoffs bracket after Rivals Week: Which 12 teams are possibly playing in the 2025 CFP?
The College Football Playoffs are just around the corner with Selection Sunday just a week away. Here’s how it’s shaping up to look.
The 2025 college football regular season is now in the books. and with just one week left until the selection committee reveals the official 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, the mix of contenders, pretenders and hopeful underdogs is finally settling into shape. Recent results during Rivalry Weekend delivered both clarity and chaos as conference titles and late-season drama reshaped the race.
Where things stand in the CFP race: The post–Week 14 snapshot
The latest CFP top-25 (as of Nov. 25) had established a clear order: Ohio State Buckeyes sits at No. 1, followed by Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Tech Red Raiders in the top five. But everything changed when No. 16 Texas Longhorns upset Texas A&M 27–17 on Friday, ending the Aggies’ perfect season and knocking them out of contention for the SEC championship game. That upset shakes up top-seed projections and invites questions about who will earn first-round byes.
Meanwhile, Georgia beat Georgia Tech to clinch a spot in the SEC title game and strengthened its case as a top seed. With conference title games and final rankings still ahead, the playoff field is still “live”, but the window is closing fast.
Projected 12-team CFP field (heading into Championship Weekend)
If the bracket were finalized today (November 30), here’s a likely 12-team field based on recent games, ranking trends, and strength of team, assuming no further upsets from conference finals. This projection mirrors recent top-25–based brackets.
Top Seeds (byes):
- Ohio State (Big Ten)
- Indiana (Big Ten)
- Georgia (SEC)
- Texas Tech (Big 12)
Other Likely Qualifiers (Seeds 5–12):
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M (if the committee deems their record strong enough despite the loss)
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Miami (Fla.)
- Tulane (or another Group of 5 champion)
Because of the Longhorns’ upset, most projections now peg Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon and others as more likely to claim host spots or first-round byes.
Projected First-Round matchups (if the bracket held this way)
- No. 5 Oregon (11–1) vs. No. 12 Tulane (10–2)
- No. 6 Ole Miss (11–1) vs. No. 11 Miami (10–2)
- No. 7 Texas A&M (11–1) vs. No. 10 Alabama (10–2)
Quarterfinal Paths
- Winner of Oklahoma–Notre Dame → at No. 1 Ohio State
- Winner of Tulane–Oregon → at No. 4 Georgia
- Winner of Miami–Ole Miss → at No. 2 Indiana
- Winner of Alabama–Texas A&M → at No. 3 Texas Tech
Texas A&M’s loss: The ripple effect
Texas A&M’s defeat to Texas wrecked more than just their perfect season...it upended expectations. The loss eliminated their chance for an SEC title shot and dropped them out of “lock” status for a top-four seed. That misstep opens the door for programs like Texas Tech, Georgia, and even some at-large hopefuls to climb into host or bye positions.
Georgia and friends take advantage
Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech keeps the Bulldogs firmly in the hunt for a top seed and likely a first-round bye, especially now that one of their SEC rivals has stumbled. Ole Miss, Oregon, and others who closed strong are now legitimate threats to claim hosting spots, especially if they win their conference championship games or avoid bad losses.
The Wild-Card race gets tighter, especially in the bubble region
With one-loss teams fighting for positioning and several ranked losses in the mix, the competition for seeds 5–12 is intense. A single poor performance or unexpected SEC/Group of 5 champion could easily bump a borderline team out. That makes this final stretch and next week’s CFP Selection Show absolutely critical for contenders like Miami, Tulane, or even a comeback-hungry Texas Tech.
What happens next?
- The official bracket will be revealed Sunday, Dec. 7 at noon ET on the CFP Selection Show.
- First-Round games are scheduled for Dec. 19–20, Quarterfinals around New Year’s, Semifinals Jan. 8–9, and the National Championship on Jan. 19, 2026.
- Until then, every conference title game matters. For teams on the bubble, one win could secure a spot and one loss could send them packing.
The 2025 expanded CFP format may create more opportunities than ever, but as this week proved, it also brings volatility. As the final pieces fall into place, every game could still redefine who plays for the national crown, and who watches from home.
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