What is Fernando Mendoza’s NFL Draft projection? The Indiana Hoosiers QB’s scouting report

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s rise from lightly recruited pocket passer to Heisman Trophy winner has been one of the most remarkable quarterback ascents in recent college football history. After transferring from California to Indiana, Mendoza delivered a season for the ages, leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated record while collecting college football’s most prestigious individual awards.

Now, with the 2026 NFL Draft coming up in April, Mendoza finds himself at the center of a familiar debate: elite production versus elite traits.

So where does he truly project at the next level?

Fernando Mendoza’s college production

Mendoza’s lone season at Indiana was nothing short of dominant. He completed over 72 percent of his passes while throwing for more than 3,100 yards and 36 touchdowns versus just six interceptions. Advanced metrics back up the box score dominance. He finished near the top of the FBS in adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating while thriving in high-leverage moments.

More importantly, Mendoza was at his best against elite competition. He delivered statement performances in the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff, consistently showing command, accuracy, and poise under pressure. NFL evaluators will always start with one question: Can you win big games? Mendoza has already answered that.

At 6′5″ and 225 pounds, Mendoza checks the size box that NFL teams still value highly at the quarterback position. He’s built to stand tall in the pocket and absorb contact, and his mechanics are clean and repeatable. Mendoza is not a dynamic runner, but he’s also not immobile. He can execute boots, extend plays just enough to buy time, and convert first downs when lanes open.

Stylistically, Mendoza wins with:

• Processing speed
• Timing and anticipation
• Short-to-intermediate accuracy
• Pocket poise

Mendoza’s biggest strength is how quickly he sees the field. He processes post-snap rotations efficiently, understands leverage, and consistently delivers the ball to optimal placement, often on the upfield shoulder, allowing receivers to maintain stride.

Indiana’s offense asked him to make fast decisions off RPOs and play-action looks, and Mendoza responded with disciplined footwork and a compact release. He rarely panics under pressure and is willing to take a hit to complete a throw rather than bail early.

Turnovers are not a defining feature of his game. When a play breaks down, Mendoza is far more likely to throw the ball away or take a sack than force a reckless attempt into coverage.

Areas NFL teams will question

Despite the accolades, Mendoza is not viewed as a flawless prospect. The biggest concern centers on out-of-structure creativity. When plays break down, Mendoza does not consistently generate second-reaction magic. He’s far more comfortable operating as a sniper within structure than as a creator outside of it.

Arm strength is another discussion point. While Mendoza can make all the required NFL throws, he does not possess a rare deep ball, and scouts will want to see more consistent downfield shots delivered in stride. He wins with precision, not power.

Fernando Mendoza’s NFL Draft projection

Based on his resume, Mendoza projects as:

• A top-three overall pick
• Likely the first quarterback selected
• An early starter for a QB-needy franchise

Best NFL fits

Mendoza’s skill set is best suited for teams that value timing, structure, and efficiency over off-script chaos. Offenses built around play-action, defined reads, and pocket command would allow him to play fast and decisively from Day 1. Looking ahead to 2026, several franchises stand out as potential fits.

• Las Vegas Raiders (No. 1)

Las Vegas continues to search for long-term stability at quarterback, and Mendoza’s calm, methodical style would mesh well with a system built around rhythm passing and ball control. If the Raiders commit to building a cleaner pocket environment, Mendoza’s processing and accuracy could make him a plug-and-play starter.

• Cleveland Browns (No. 6)

If Cleveland remains unconvinced it has found its future at quarterback, Mendoza would fit an offense that thrives on play-action and defined reads. His ability to distribute efficiently would complement a run-heavy approach and limit the need for high-risk throws.

• New Orleans Saints (No. 8)

The Saints have long favored quarterbacks who can operate within structure and command the middle of the field. Mendoza’s timing, anticipation, and willingness to take what defenses give him would align well with an offense that prioritizes precision over improvisation.

• New York Jets (No. 2)

If the Jets continue to seek long-term answers under center, Mendoza’s profile matches what many modern coaching staffs want: a big, accurate pocket passer who can process quickly and avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Surrounded by pass-catching talent, he wouldn’t be asked to play hero ball.

• Arizona Cardinals (No. 3)

Should Arizona reset at quarterback in 2026, Mendoza would provide a stylistic shift toward structure and efficiency. With young pass-catchers in place, his accuracy and ball placement could help stabilize an offense looking for consistency.

Fernando Mendoza may not overwhelm scouts with raw traits, but his production, polish, and command of the position are impossible to ignore. Barring a dramatic shift in perception, Mendoza should hear his name called early on draft night - possibly first overall - and enter the NFL with a clear path to starting sooner rather than later.

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