Who is the favorite to win March Madness 2026? Updated odds heading into Elite Eight

With the Elite Eight underway, the race to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament is coming into focus, but unlike past years, there isn’t a runaway favorite. Instead, a small group of teams has separated from the pack.

Right now, the Michigan Wolverines have emerged as the slight favorite to win it all, with odds around +300, narrowly ahead of the Arizona Wildcats and the Duke Blue Devils. But the gap is small, and that’s what makes this tournament so compelling.

The current favorites (Elite Eight stage)

Based on the latest odds and projections, here’s how the top contenders stack up:

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan has surged to the top of the odds board thanks to dominant performances and strong interior play. Analysts have consistently ranked them as the most complete team remaining, with the ability to control games on both ends.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona has been one of the most consistent teams all season and continues to look like a serious title threat. Their defense and depth, with multiple NBA-level players, have made them a popular pick to reach the Final Four.

Duke Blue Devils

Duke entered the tournament as a favorite and remain in the mix. Even with some injury concerns, their talent level and tournament experience keep them among the most dangerous teams left.

Other teams still in the mix

While those three lead the way, a few others still have a realistic path:

• Illinois Fighting Illini - strong odds despite being a No. 3 seed, showing how much respect they’ve earned
• Purdue Boilermakers - elite offense, but tougher path ahead
• UConn Huskies - recent champions with proven tournament pedigree

And then there’s the wildcard:

• Iowa Hawkeyes - the Cinderella story still alive, ranked near the bottom in title odds but riding momentum

Earlier in the tournament, teams like Duke and Michigan entered as co-favorites, but as results have unfolded, the field has tightened instead of separating. The difference between the top three teams is minimal, and matchups in the Elite Eight could quickly reshape the odds again.

At this stage, it’s no longer just about talent. It’s about the matchups, momentum, and star performances that will decide the close games. One dominant performance this weekend could turn a contender into the outright favorite overnight.

The Michigan Wolverines may hold a slight edge heading into the Elite Eight, but the 2026 NCAA Tournament is still wide open. With Arizona, Duke, and several others close behind, there’s no clear runaway favorite, and that uncertainty is exactly what makes March Madness what it is.

Elite Eight schedule

*already underway

Saturday, March 28

• 6:09 p.m. ET: No. 3 Illinois vs No. 9 Iowa - Toyota Center, Houston, TX
• 8:49 p.m. ET: No. 1 Arizona vs No. 2 Purdue - SAP Center, San Jose, CA

Sunday, March 29

• 2:15 p.m. ET: No. 1 Michigan vs No. 6 Tennessee - Midwest regional final
• 5:05 p.m. ET: No. 1 Duke vs No. 2 UConn - East regional final

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