NFL

AFC No. 1 seed scenarios: How Broncos, Patriots and Jaguars can finish on top

Denver controls its destiny in Week 18, while New England and Jacksonville need help to secure the AFC’s lone playoff bye.

ERIC THOMAS

Roddy Cons

Scottish sports journalist and content creator. After running his own soccer-related projects, in 2022 he joined Diario AS, where he mainly reports on the biggest news from around Europe’s leading soccer clubs, Liga MX and MLS, and covers live games in a not-too-serious tone. Likes to mix things up by dipping into the world of American sports.

Update: Dec 28th, 2025 19:40 EST

There will be plenty at stake in Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season, with a straight shootout between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North title, as well as between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South.

AFC No. 1 seed undecided

Those are the only playoff spots still to be decided, although there is also plenty of intrigue at the top of both conferences. The race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC remains wide open heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (13-3), New England Patriots (13-3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) are all still in contention to finish atop the conference by the end of Week 18.

"We didn't even address making the playoffs as a team... You're really trying to focus on getting better."

Coach Coen on our mindset of improving & going 1-0 each week. pic.twitter.com/5xcK9HtTee
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 28, 2025

Broncos in control

The Broncos, who have already clinched the AFC West, know that a home win against the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) will secure the No. 1 seed, no matter what the Patriots do against the Miami Dolphins (7-9) in Foxborough. That advantage comes from Denver holding the tiebreaker over New England due to a better record in common games.

Jaguars need help

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are very much on the outside looking in. They must beat the Tennessee Titans (3-13) in Jacksonville, which you would expect them to do, and hope both the Broncos and Patriots lose their final regular-season games.

If that unlikely scenario plays out, all three teams would finish 13-4, and Jacksonville would win the three-way tiebreaker to claim the No. 1 seed.

However, there is also danger for the Jaguars. If they lose to Tennessee, not only would they be out of the running for the top seed, they would also risk surrendering the AFC South title to the Houston Texans, who would hold the tiebreaker if both teams finish 12-5.

Patriots’ narrow path to the top

The Patriots’ route to the No. 1 seed is the narrowest of all. New England must beat Miami and then hope both Denver and Jacksonville fail to win. Anything less leaves them settling for a lower seed despite another strong regular season.

Is the No. 1 seed always an advantage?

In theory, finishing the regular season as the No. 1 seed brings a more favorable path. The top teams in the AFC and NFC skip the Wild Card round, gaining an extra week to rest, recover from minor injuries, and prepare for the postseason.

That said, there is always the argument that a two-week break can disrupt a team’s rhythm, especially one riding a hot streak that would rather keep playing. Still, almost every coach would take the rest over the risk, and history generally shows that top seeds tend to have an edge once the playoffs begin.