Bears playoff picture: Who Chicago could face and what Week 18 means

The Chicago Bears are in the playoffs and currently sitting at No. 2 in the NFC standings, but that could change in Week 18 as they have a chance to drop down to the No. 3 seed. It may not sound like a big difference, but there is actually a lot at stake if they lose their positioning. That makes Week 18 one of the most impactful of the season as it will determine whether Chicago opens the postseason at home or draw one of the NFC’s most dangerous teams.

With one regular-season game left against the Detroit Lions, several different outcomes remain on the table.

Where the Bears stand entering Week 18

Chicago enters the final week of the season positioned as the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but that spot is not locked in. They can finish as either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. They will host a Wild Card game either way, but their opponent will be one of these three teams:

• Green Bay Packers
• Los Angeles Rams
• San Francisco 49ers

Current NFC standings ahead of Week 18 games:

1. Seahawks (can move down to No. 5)
2. Bears (can move down to No. 3)
3. Eagles (can move up to No. 2)
4. Panthers or Buccaneers (winner will be locked into No. 4)
5. 49ers (can move up to No. 1 or down to No. 6)
6. Rams (can move up to No. 5)
7. Packers (locked into No.7)

How the Bears lock in the No. 2 seed

The simplest path for the Bears to lock in the No. 2 seed is to just beat the Lions. However, even if they lose, they would still clinch the No. 2 seed if the Eagles lose to the Washington Commanders. So, these are the scenarios:

• Chicago beats the Detroit Lions, or
• The Philadelphia Eagles lose to the Washington Commanders

If the Bears stay at No. 2, they would host the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round. If both the Bears and the Eagles win their games, the Bears would still keep their spot at No. 2 since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Eagles earlier in the season.

The advantage of the No. 2 seed

The biggest advantage of finishing No. 2 isn’t just the opponent; it’s home-field advantage. As the No. 2 seed, the Bears would not only be guaranteed a home game for the Wild Card round, but be guaranteed to host a Divisional Round game if they advance as well.

The No. 2 seed is the most favorable scenario for Chicago in terms of opponents as well. Green Bay is dealing with serious uncertainty at quarterback. Jordan Love missed Week 17 with a concussion, and Malik Willis started but exited with a shoulder injury If the Bears hold onto the No. 2 seed, they would face a Packers team potentially starting a backup quarterback and limping into the postseason.

How the Bears fall to the No. 3 seed

If things don’t go Chicago’s way in Week 18, the Bears would slide down one spot. The Bears fall to the No. 3 seed if:

• They lose to the Lions and
• The Eagles beat the Commanders

Once that happens, the opponent (the No. 6 seed) becomes dependent on results elsewhere in the NFC. Here are the potential scenarios.

No. 3 seed matchup: Bears vs Rams

One possible outcome as the No. 3 seed is a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. This scenario requires:

• Lions beat Bears
• Eagles win
• 49ers beat Seahawks

There is also an alternate path:

• Lions, Eagles, Seahawks, and Cardinals all win

In either case, the Rams would land as the No. 6 seed. This would be a tough game for Chicago. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have plenty of playoff experience, and Los Angeles would not be an ideal first-round opponent.

No. 3 seed matchup: Bears vs 49ers

Another possible outcome is a rematch with San Francisco. The Bears nearly upset the 49ers in Week 17, losing on the final play. Still, that game showed just how difficult it is to slow down San Francisco’s offense.

For this matchup to happen:

• Lions beat Bears
• Eagles win
• Seahawks win
• Rams win

That combination would send the 49ers to the No. 6 seed and set up a Bears–49ers rematch in Chicago.

Full Bears Week 18 playoff scenarios

• Bears beat Lions:
  • No. 2 seed
  • Host Packers
• Bears lose, Eagles lose:
  • No. 2 seed
  • Host Packers
• Bears lose, Eagles win:
  • No. 3 seed
  • Host Rams or 49ers

Kickoff against the Lions is set for Sunday, January 4 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Soldier Field, and by the end of the afternoon, Chicago will know exactly who’s coming to their turf in the first round of the postseason, and how difficult their playoff road will be.

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