Broncos - Chiefs odds and predictions: Who is the favorite in the NFL Thursday Night game?

Following a tough potentially karma-induced loss to the New York Jets, Broncos head coach Sean Payton will be looking to bounce back, however, there couldn’t be a stiff challenge waiting. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are fresh off a win against the Vikings and looking for more. They’ll likely get it.

Broncos vs Chiefs: The lay of the land

Week 6 in the NFL will begin with a ‘Thursday Night Football’ clash between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Playing at home in Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs will be clear favorites in this one as they have been firing on all cylinders since their lone loss of the season in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. Indeed, at 4-1, they are on the opposite side of the spectrum from the Broncos who are currently sitting on a record of 1-4 following a loss to an Aaron Rodgersless New York Jets.

The big news of course is that the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce has been listed as questionable. Sorry Swifites. With that said, if the star tight end does in fact miss the game, it likely won’t affect the night’s proceedings significantly. Where the numbers between these two are concerned, the Chiefs have won their last 10 meetings with the Broncos, and assuming head coach Andy Reid gets his running backs involved, they will likely make it 11 in a row. For the season so far, KC ranks in the middle of the league with an 18.2 target share to RBs, however, in the two meetings that they had with Denver last year, Jerick Mckinnon and Isiah Pacheco combined for 17 receptions, 215 yards, and four receiving touchdowns on target share of 25%. Look for more of the same on Thursday night.

The Broncos are not playing well

There’s no way to avoid the fact that the Broncos have started this season poorly. To be fair, the reason for that is more on the defensive end than the offense. Though it has to be said, Russell Wilson and Co. are sitting slightly above the league average, ranking 16th in DVOA, 13th in yards per drive, and 11th in points per drive. Thus far Wilson has not faced any significant pressure but that’s about to change as the reigning Super Bowl champions currently rank fourth in pressure rate. Can he find the same success when the pocket isn’t clean? The answer to that question will likely be central to whether the Broncos can find any success on Thursday night.

Travis Kelce or not the Chiefs know how to score

As mentioned above, Travis Kelce has been listed as questionable with an ankle injury, however, the reality is the Chiefs have more than enough weapons to compensate for his limited involvement or outright absence. With their pass-heavy offense, expect to see Patrick Mahomes involved in the large majority of plays, rather than the team leaning on its run game. Though that latter option has seen them garner success, they probably won’t need it against a Broncos defense that ranks 32nd overall in DVOA and has been just as bad at defending the pass which is why they’re ranked 31st. They’re also 32nd when defending the run. Not good.

Broncos vs Chiefs: The Odds

Broncos vs Chiefs: The Prediction

Here’s the thing: As they enter this game the two teams couldn’t be further apart. As we saw in their loss to the Jets, Russell Wilson and the Broncos failed to get a first down on numerous occasions including a lost fumble. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is spreading the ball all around. In the Chiefs’ Week 5 win against the Vikings, the reigning MVP hit 10 different receivers. If there is one factor in all of this that adds some degree of unpredictability, it’s the weather. Conditions will be windy on Thursday night (15-30 mph) and there is the possibility of rain. Should that be the case, the points total could definitely be affected, but that’s not to say in the Broncos’ favor. Ultimately we’re going with a Chiefs win.