Broncos vs. Bills playoff could come down to one oddly specific Josh Allen stat
Denver’s defense has a clear formula for slowing Buffalo’s star QB, and history suggests it could decide the Divisional Round matchup.
The Denver Broncos, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, open their 2025 postseason campaign in the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills. That, of course, means running headlong into a man many consider the best player remaining in this year’s playoffs: Josh Allen.
Josh Allen’s playoff reputation
The Bills quarterback has built something of a postseason reputation. His 309.5 total yards per game are the most in NFL history by a quarterback with at least 10 playoff starts. He has also accounted for 35 postseason touchdowns, compared to just four interceptions.
Impressive numbers, no doubt. However, a handful of more obscure statistics have come to life that should offer Denver some hope and, more importantly, provide a clear blueprint for how the Broncos can send Allen and the Bills packing.
How to beat the Bills
As highlighted by “Up & Adams Show with Kay Adams,” hitting Allen at least six times in a game dramatically increases a team’s chances of beating Buffalo. It is a bizarrely specific number, but one Denver will be keenly aware of this weekend.
During the regular season, the Bills finished 12-5. Allen was hit fewer than six times in 12 of those games, with Buffalo winning 11 and losing just one. In those contests, the 29-year-old threw 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions, while posting a passer rating of 109.9.
In the five games in which Allen was hit six times or more, Buffalo won just once and lost five times. The quarterback’s production dipped sharply, with six touchdowns, six interceptions and an 87.3 passer rating.
For context, Adams also highlighted that many other QBs, including Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, all had vastly superior records in games in which they were hit six or more times.
Lesson for Denver’s defense to learn
Slowing down Allen was always going to be the central challenge for the Broncos, but these figures underline that reality even further. Fortunately for Denver, which boasts one of the league’s strongest defenses, defensive lineman Zach Allen, no relation, leads the NFL in quarterback hits since 2023. He is also only the second player to post back-to-back seasons with 40 or more QB hits.
That said, Buffalo ran for 210 yards in a dominant 31-7 playoff win over Denver last season. In that game, Zach Allen recorded one of the Broncos’ two sacks on his namesake, but the Bills never reached the magic number of six hits on the quarterback.
The question now is whether Denver learned that lesson 12 months ago, or whether Josh Allen will once again have the time and space to take over a playoff game.
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