Buccaneers vs. Falcons betting trends: odds, point spread and over/under prediction | NFL Week 5

The NFC South has exploded on to the scene this season after a few years of being labeled one of the the worst in the league. The Saints started the season looking like a formidable contender in the NFC, but after their loss to the Falcons last week, it’s Tampa Bay and Atlanta are the early season front runners in the division. They are set for a primetime Thursday night battle to kick off Week 5 from Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Bucs vs. Falcons preview

After making the playoffs last year, the Bucs came into the season with high hopes but questions surrounding their offense. Baker Mayfield has not only answered those questions, he has taken this offense to a level it hasn’t seen since Tom Brady was under center. The defense is always going to be the back bone of a Todd Bowles team, but now Mayfield and company are taking the weight off the shoulders of the guys on the other side of the ball. They handed the Commanders their only loss of the season in Week 1, and then beat the Lions in Detroit before suffering a shock loss to Denver in Week 3. Last week they rebounded with by blowing out the Eagles from Raymond James Stadium.

The Falcons are 2-2 coming into their Thursday night showdown with the Bucs. Each of their first four games have come down to the wire, and they could be 4-0 just as easily as they could be 0-4. Their two victories came on late, dramatic game winning drives against the Eagles and the Saints while their losses came to the Steelers in Week 1 and the Chiefs in Week 3. They took the two time defending champions all the way to the final minutes of the fourth quarter, and a questionable no-call for pass interference in the end zone allowed the Chiefs narrowly edge the Falcons. Kirk Cousins and the offense are getting better by the week, and this defense has shown they can shut teams like Philly and KC down.

These two teams haven’t always been in the same division, but there is plenty of history between these two teams. There have been 61 games between the Falcons and Bucs and the Bucs lead the all time series 31-30 heading into Thursday night. The Bucs have won six of the last eight matchups against the Falcons including last year’s 29-25 thanks to a late Cade Otton TD reception with a half minute to go in the 4th quarter.

Spread, Over/Under and Prediction

Heading into the Thursday night matchup from Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the Falcons are 1.5 point favorites, and the Over/Under is set at 43.5.

The Falcons offense has been gradually getting better since struggling in their Week 1 opener. We have seen them capable of moving the ball in late game situations with the game on the line. They did it against the Eagles, they did it against the Chiefs and they did it last week against the Saints. I think this week they come out with that same sense of urgency to start the game and then use Bijan Robinson to control the clock the rest of the way.

Atlanta wins it in another close one: 24-20.