Bucs’ playoff odds take a hit after heartbreaking loss to Falcons
Tampa Bay’s loss to the Falcons dropped their postseason probability and knocked them out of first place in the NFC South, setting up a must-win Week 16.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw their 2025 postseason outlook take a sharp turn after a stunning 29–28 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15. The defeat not only dropped the Bucs to 7–7, but it also significantly lowered their chances of making the playoffs and cost them control of the NFC South standings.
Despite Atlanta being eliminated from postseason contention, the Falcons fought back behind Kirk Cousins, who led a late scoring drive capped by Zane Gonzalez’s game-winning field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay squandered opportunities even with Atlanta committing 19 penalties for 125 yards.
TRENDING: Mike Evans was visibly upset after last night’s loss to the Falcons. He was repeating “IT’S 3RD AND 28!” on his way to the locker room 😬
— betr (@betr) December 12, 2025
The Buccaneers are now 7-7 and are currently OUT of the playoffs pic.twitter.com/cgAgVBmL5C
Buccaneers’ path to the playoffs narrows: Updated odds
The loss knocks the Bucs out of first place in the NFC South. According to multiple projection models, Tampa Bay’s likelihood of reaching the postseason has dipped to a roughly 53–54% chance of making the playoffs, down from the 70%+ odds the team held before Thursday’s game. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers, who now sit atop the NFC South, have seen their own odds improve in the wake of the upset.
The good news for the Bucs is, they still control their destiny: winning both upcoming matchups against the Carolina Panthers would secure the division title. However, given the team’s recent collapse, confidence is low. The lone bright spot in their Week 15 loss was the return of Mike Evans, who delivered 132 yards on six catches.
The next chance for the Bucs to swing momentum back their way comes in Week 16, when they face the Panthers in a crucial divisional matchup. Simulations suggest that a Buccaneers victory against Carolina could boost their playoff odds back above 90%, quickly restoring their grasp on the NFC South and postseason positioning.
In contrast, another loss to Carolina would drop Tampa Bay’s postseason probability significantly, possibly into the mid-40s percent range, making their path to January football significantly more tenuous.
While 53–54% odds still technically put the Bucs in a favorable spot to make the playoff field, the margin for error has gotten much smaller. They’ve now lost five of their last six games, a stretch that has jeopardized what started as one of the league’s more promising seasons.
With the NFC South title now up for grabs and division games coming up late in the schedule, every matchup carries heightened importance. For Tampa Bay, Week 16 could define their entire season.
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