Carolina Panthers playoff picture: On the bubble, but in control

The Carolina Panthers are heading into their bye week hot off a win over the Los Angeles Rams. They weren’t supposed to be in the playoff conversation this deep into the season, but here they are, entering the bye week above .500 and squarely on the bubble. A year after growing pains, coaching turnover, and an offense that couldn’t find its footing, the 2025 Panthers have turned into one of the NFL’s most surprising late-season contenders.

Carolina has spent most of the year balancing inconsistency with flashes of real potential. Their biggest breakthrough came with this week’s 31–28 upset over the 9–3 Los Angeles Rams, one of the NFC’s elite teams rolling in on a six-game win streak. It was Carolina’s second such “prove-it” win. The first came on the road in Week 9, beating the Packers 16–13 in Lambeau.

What’s changed?

• Bryce Young’s year-three leap: 206 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs vs Rams, and much cleaner decision-making over the last month.
• Rico Dowdle’s emergence: One of the best free-agent bargains of the offseason.
• Tetairoa McMillan: A legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate who has become Young’s go-to weapon.
• A defense that suddenly makes plays: After ranking near the bottom early in the season, they’ve turned into an opportunistic unit. Against the Rams, they forced three takeaways, including a pick-six, and did it without star CB Jaycee Horn.

They’re not a complete team, but they’re gritty, well-coached, and capable of knocking off anyone when they’re locked in.

Where the Panthers stand now

In the NFC South

The division is still within reach. In fact, it’s their most realistic path to the postseason.

• Buccaneers: 7-5
• Panthers: 7-6
• Falcons: 4-8
• Saints: 2–10

Carolina trails Tampa Bay by just half a game, and they play the Buccaneers twice in the final four weeks. They truly control their own destiny in the NFC South.

In the NFC Playoff Race

The Panthers are currently 10th in the conference.

The Wild Card path is possible but much more complicated, with the Lions, Cowboys, and 49ers holding the final spots heading into Week 14.

Playoff odds after Week 13

According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor:

• Panthers playoff chance: 39.20%
• Chance to win NFC South: 36.00%

Both jumped significantly after the win over the Rams.

Panthers’ remaining schedule

Carolina’s bye comes at the perfect time, and then the sprint begins:

• Week 15: @ Saints
• Week 16: vs Buccaneers
• Week 17: vs Seahawks
• Week 18: @ Buccaneers

Three of the final four games are divisional matchups. Two are against the Bucs. The season finale could very easily be a “winner takes the division” game.

What the Panthers need to make the playoffs

Path 1: Win the NFC South (most realistic)

Carolina can win the division if they:

1. Beat Tampa Bay at least once, preferably twice.
2. Handle New Orleans in Week 15.
3. Split or win outright against Seattle in Week 17.

If they win both head-to-head games vs Tampa, they essentially control the tiebreakers and the division becomes theirs to lose.

Path 2: Win a Wildcard spot (much harder)

They would need:

• To win at least 3 of 4 (10–7) or possibly all 4 games (11–6).
• Losses from at least two of the following:
  • Lions (brutal remaining strength of schedule, 4th toughest)
  • Cowboys (one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules, 28th)
  • 49ers (8th toughest remaining SOS)

The Lions–Cowboys Week 14 matchup actually gives Carolina help: one of them must lose. But given the standings and schedules, the Wild Card route is an uphill battle. The division is the cleanest path, and Carolina holds the steering wheel.

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