Chargers vs Patriots AFC Wild Card Round, preview, odds and prediction 

Sunday’s primetime game features a couple of high profile quarterbacks looking to take their respective teams to the next level. The Los Angeles Chargers travel east to New England to take on a Patriots team that is back in the playoffs and looking to make a Super Bowl run for first time since Tom Brady left.

Patriots preview

What a first year it has been for Mike Vrable in his return to New England. The Patriots legend was brought home last offseason after the Pats parted ways with Jarod Mayo after a 4-13 season in his first year as head coach. Drake Maye showed signs of promise despite the rough season and in just his second year he is in the running for the MVP.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who was with the Pats for a long time during their dynasty, was brought back to Foxborough and has turned Maye into one of the best QBs in the league. The season started off a little rocky as NE lost two of their first three, but they rattled off 10 straight wins an 13 of their next 14 to earn the AFC East title for the first time since 2019.

Maye threw for 4,393 yards and 31 touchdowns in his second year, both stats are in the top four of all QBs in the league and he has the best passer rating in the entire NFL. Meanwhile, their defense is holding opponents to just 18.3 points per game and and have let up over 20 points just once since before Thanksgiving.

Chargers preview

LA are back in the playoffs for the second straight year and looking to get their first postseason win since 2019. With Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, LA fans will be hoping this is the year to not just win a playoff game but to make a run to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2007.

The Chargers made a huge statement in the first week of the season when they went down to Sao Paolo and beat the Kansas City Chiefs thanks to some late game heroics from their Golden Boy QB. People immediately started to wonder if this was the year the Chiefs would get knocked off their AFC West throne. It turns out it was, but the Denver Broncos would take over the division title.

Herbert’s numbers haven’t been jaw dropping by any means. He’s thrown fo 3,727 yards, 26 TDs and 13 INTs which is third most in the league after Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. They’ve got a two headed rushing attack with Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton but the rookie RB is listed as questionable for the game on Sunday night. What the Chargers can rely on in Foxborough is their defense. They are a top five defensive unit when it comes to yards allowed per game with 285.2 given up, and passing yards allowed with 179.2 per game.

Odds and prediction

The Patriots turnaround has been sensational. They have gone from a four win team last year to contending for the one seed in the AFC. The one knock on them is their strength of schedule and their quality of wins. Somehow they only beat one team that finished the season with a winning record, and that was the Buffalo Bills back in Week 5. The Chargers are well over .500 and rested their starters last week so they will be ready to go against a Patriots team that saw all three of their losses come at home.

• Odds: Patriots (-3.5)
• Over/Under: 45.5 
• Moneyline: Patriots (-200), Chargers (+165)

The Pats season has been a dream, but I think it comes to an end on Sunday night. They have a second year QB that is in the MVP race and I think everything is just happening a bit too soon in New England. The Chargers defense suffocates the Pats and win their first playoff game in six years.

LA win 33-14.

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