NFL
Chiefs - Falcons betting trends: Pick, odds, point spread and over/under prediction | NFL week 3
In a week three matchup that looks to be fairly even, we take a look at both sides and try to work out where the safe money is.
The Kansas City Chiefs, sitting at 2-0, travel to face the 1-1 Atlanta Falcons in Week 3’s Sunday Night Football showdown. Mercedes-Benz Stadium will play host to a matchup that could turn out tighter than some might expect. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, with Kansas City entering as a 3.5-point favorite, and the game total set at 46.5 points. On the moneyline, the Chiefs are listed at -185, while Atlanta’s a +150 underdog for those eyeing the upset.
The Chiefs are fortunate to be unbeaten so far. They edged out close wins over the Ravens and Bengals, but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t quite found his usual rhythm. On top of that, they’ll be without their lead back, Isiah Pacheco, who’s sidelined for the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off an emotional win against the Eagles, thanks to a last-minute drive led by Kirk Cousins. It was a much-needed boost for Atlanta after their lackluster Week 1 showing against Pittsburgh.
Let’s dive into the betting landscape for this Chiefs-Falcons clash, focusing on point spread, over/under totals, and the game’s overall outlook.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Betting Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- Total: 46.5 points
- Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Falcons +150
- Over/Under: Under 46.5
Looking at how these teams have performed, the best bet here leans toward the under. The 46.5 total feels a bit ambitious considering both offenses have had their struggles, and I’d feel comfortable playing this down to under 46. The Chiefs haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard, and the Falcons have shown they can grind down games with a strong defense and steady run game.
Point Spread Thoughts
I’m avoiding the spread on this one. It’s been bouncing between -3 and -3.5, and it’s hard to feel confident either way. While Mahomes has been solid when the spread is tight (24-8-1 against the spread when it’s 3 or less), his numbers dip when favored by more than a field goal (18-31-1 since November 2020). That fluctuation makes this spread tricky to bet on, especially with Kansas City’s offense not firing on all cylinders.
Moneyline Insights
No moneyline play for me in this game. Mahomes can be magic in tight moments, but this feels like a potential trap game for the Chiefs. Coming off an emotional win and a short week, they might not be at their sharpest, and Atlanta has shown they can hang in there when it matters most. While I wouldn’t bet on the Falcons outright, I’m not feeling confident enough to take the Chiefs at -185 either.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons: Preview
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Chiefs’ offense has been leaning heavily on short passes, with Mahomes averaging just 5.1 intended air yards per throw - one of the lowest in the league. The offensive line hasn’t given him the kind of protection he’s used to, with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia even getting benched last week. Without Pacheco, they’ll be relying on Carson Steele, who’s a bruiser but not exactly a dynamic runner.
On the flip side, the Falcons’ defense has been solid, especially in preventing yards after the catch. They’ve allowed just 2.8 yards per reception in that category, best in the league. If Kansas City continues to rely on underneath throws, Atlanta’s defense could make things difficult, turning this game into a grind.
The Falcons have been decent against the run, giving up just 3.82 yards per carry to running backs, and they’ll look to keep Kansas City’s ground game in check. If the Chiefs can’t break open big plays, it’ll slow down the game even further.
Kansas City’s defense has also been holding its own, with a strong secondary and a pass rush that made life tough for Joe Burrow last week. Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins has shown flashes of his old self, but it’s hard to gauge just how back he is after dealing with an Achilles issue. He had a strong finish against the Eagles, but it’s unclear if he’s ready to take on the Chiefs’ top-tier cornerback group led by Trent McDuffie.
Atlanta’s offensive attack will likely rely heavily on running back Bijan Robinson. The Falcons haven’t been throwing the ball much, ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, and Robinson’s been a workhorse. Kyle Pitts is another wild card, as Atlanta will likely look to get him more involved after a quiet start to the season.
Best Bet for Chiefs vs. Falcons
The Chiefs have been playing close, low-scoring games, and the Falcons are built to slow the game down even more. While Kansas City still has plenty of firepower, I expect this one to play out similarly to their games last season, with a final score somewhere in the range of 21-17.
FINAL PICK: Under 46.5