Colts - Bengals betting trends: Pick, odds, point spread, over/under prediction | NFL preseason week 3
As the NFL preseason enters week 3, we get a chance to look at two teams who are struggling so far, with offenses provided something less than expected.
So, the Cincinnati Bengals are hosting the Indianapolis Colts this Thursday at Paycor Stadium, and if you’re thinking this might be a sneak peek of some top-notch NFL action, let’s pump the brakes a bit. We’re in preseason, after all, and this one isn’t exactly set up to be a barnburner. But hey, that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth diving into, especially if you’re looking to make a smart play on the betting front.
Let’s talk about the big picture first. The Bengals are still hunting for their first preseason win, and they’ll be trying to do that against a Colts team that’s favored by nearly a touchdown. Yes, you read that right. The Colts opened as just 2.5-point favorites, but after some early betting action, that line has ballooned to 6.5 points. Clearly, the money is leaning heavily towards Indianapolis, but that might not be as much of a lock as it seems.
Now, the over/under line has also seen some movement. It opened at 36.5 points, but that number has crept down to 34.5. If you’re thinking of going with the under, you’re not alone - 67% of bets and 72% of the money are banking on a low-scoring affair. The trend suggests that most folks aren’t expecting an offensive explosion, which makes sense given the QB situations for both teams.
Colts vs Bengals Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -6.5 | 34.5 | -290 |
| Bengals | +6.5 | 34.5 | +240 |
Colts vs. Bengals Betting Trends
- 55% of bets and 78% of the money are on the Colts to cover the spread.
- 67% of bets and 72% of the money are on the under.
On the Bengals’ side, don’t expect to see much of Joe Burrow. In fact, you might not see him at all. Burrow only threw seven passes in the first preseason game, and with the regular season around the corner, there’s little incentive to risk their star QB. Instead, we’ll likely see Logan Woodside and Rocky Lombardi splitting reps under center, and let’s just say that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in Cincinnati lighting up the scoreboard.
The Colts, on the other hand, are taking a different approach. Head coach Shane Steichen has confirmed that the starters will see some decent action, including rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Steichen mentioned they’ll play “about a quarter and a half, probably, give or take,” which should give Richardson some much-needed reps. But here’s the kicker - Richardson didn’t exactly shine in the joint practices this week. Reports have him struggling, and Bengals defenders were quick to point out that he relied too heavily on his legs when things got tough.
One Bengals defender even shouted, “Throw the ball!” after Richardson kept scrambling during practice. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of his passing game, and if that’s any indicator, the Colts’ offense might not be firing on all cylinders come Thursday night. Richardson did manage to throw a pick in practice, too, which only adds to the concern that Indy’s offense could sputter.
Given the quarterback carousel on both sides and Richardson’s growing pains, it’s hard to imagine this game turning into a high-scoring affair. Sure, the Colts are favored by 6.5 points, but that number feels a bit high considering the circumstances. And when you factor in the preseason trends - where the under has hit in 26 of the last 33 games - it seems like the smart play is to expect another low-scoring contest.
So, what’s the bottom line here? If you’re betting, the under at 34.5 points feels like the move. Neither team is likely to light up the scoreboard, especially with the Bengals’ QB situation and Richardson’s struggles. It might not be the most thrilling game to watch, but there’s value in knowing when to expect a snoozer.