Big bets are made on the coin toss and whether it will come up heads or tails at the Super Bowl, but the numbers don’t lie and we’ve got the data for you.

Does the coin flip predict the winner of the Super Bowl?

You might think that each team has the same exact chance of winning the most important football game of the year independent of whether the coin toss comes up heads or tails, but history proves that sometimes it come down to a coin toss.
Those who like to bet black or red at the roulette table, will be keen to place their bets on the coin toss. After 59 Super Bowls, those who love numbers have enough data to know who the favorite will be, depending on the coin toss.
Every year at the Super Bowl, with dozens of people on the field for the coin toss, I'm reminded of Neil Leifer's great coin toss photo at Super Bowl I. pic.twitter.com/Tag2qtiLIq
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) February 12, 2023
History of the coin toss at the Super Bowl
Of the 59 Super Bowls that have been played so far, teams who won the coin toss have been able to win the game 25 times while losing 34 times.
Everyone was loving @RealJoeNamath's fur coat as the honorary coin toss captain at Super Bowl XLVIII 😂@insidethenfl's Top 60 SB Mic'd Up Moments on X pic.twitter.com/bwnMZcKE9Z
— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2026
The longest streak for the Super Bowl coin toss winner losing the game has been eight, between Super Bowl 49 (when the Seahawks won the coin toss (tails) and lost to the Patriots. Sound familiar?) and Super Bowl 56.
Heads or tails, which side has the winning edge?
There has been a tiny 31-28 margin for tails in Super Bowl coin tosses. Tails have been on top 31 times, while heads has hit 28.
Former President George H.W. Bush assists with the coin toss at Super Bowl LI alongside Barbara Bush; Atlanta Falcons win the toss. pic.twitter.com/pX7UHP4Mv0
— ABC News (@ABC) February 5, 2017
Flipping a coin five years in a row and getting the same result is very unlikely; the chance is only 3 percent. However, from 2009 to 2013, heads won five times in a row, the most of the two sides of the coin.
In the last four years, the toss has gone: heads - tails - heads - tails. So, this year it should be heads, right? Tune in and find out.
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