How can the Atlanta Falcons make the NFL playoffs? Here’s what needs to happen

The 2024 NFL regular season is coming to a close, which means it’s make or break for a number of teams as they attempt to clinch a spot in the playoffs. That includes the Atlanta Falcons (6-7), who are in action in Monday Night Football in week 15 against the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11).

Following the weekend action, seven franchises (the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, the Detroit Lions, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings) have already secured postseason participation, but the Falcons are one of several who are on the outside looking in.

How the Falcons can win NFC South

Atlanta still have two routes into the playoffs, although they have little margin for error in the first of them.

Raheem Morris’ team can still qualify as winners of NFC South, although they must leapfrog the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6). A victory over the Raiders on Monday would take them to within one win of the Bucs, who have been in a rich vein of form of late, with four straight triumphs.

Crucially, however, the Falcons hold the tiebreaker after defeating the Buccaneers in weeks 5 and 8.

That means Atalanta will win NFC South if they end the regular season with an identical (or superior, obviously) record to Tampa Bay. The most likely way to do that would be to defeat Las Vegas on Monday and then win at least one more game than the Bucs in the remaining three weeks.

But if Todd Bowles’ team finish with three more victories, there will be nothing the Falcons can do to stop them.

What do the Falcons need to clinch a wild-card spot?

The second route is via the wild-card round. Atlanta must finish the regular season with the fifth, sixth or seventh best record (they are 10th at present). After the weekend action in week 15, the teams in those positions are the Vikings (11-2), who have already qualified, the Green Bay Packers (10-4) and the Washington Commanders (9-5).

However, the Falcons are also playing catchup with the eighth-placed Seattle Seahawks (8-6) and the ninth-placed Arizona Cardinals (7-7) with four games remaining.

In short, they must leapfrog three of the teams ahead of them in the standings to be involved in the postseason.

Falcons' remaining games in NFL 2024 regular season

Clearly, the Falcons’ best chance of clinching a wild-card spot, if they don’t win NFC South, is by finishing the regular season with four straight wins. This is what they have left:

Week 15 - @ Raiders, Dec 16

Week 16 - Giants, Dec 22

Week 17 - @ Commanders, Dec 29

Week 18 - Panthers, Jan 5

If Atlanta were to win all four games, they would finish with a 10-7 record. That would see them claim a wild card spot if:

- the Commanders win one game or fewer (finishing no better than 10-7)

- the Seahawks win one game or fewer (finishing no better than 9-8)

- the Cardinals win two games or fewer (finishing no better than 9-8)

While the Seahawks hold the tiebreaker over the Falcons, Atlanta would have the upper hand over the Commanders as a result of a victory in week 17.

If the Falcons win three of their four remaining games, they would end up with a 9-8 record. That would only be enough to qualify if:

- the Commanders lose all three of their remaining games (finishing no better than 9-8)

- the Seahawks lose all three of their remaining games (finishing no better than 8-9)

- the Cardinals win one game or fewer (finishing no better than 8-9)

The Falcons’ superior conference record to the Cardinals means they would likely finish above Arizona if they finish level, although it could yet depend on results in the final three games.

Falcons vs Raiders: when, where, how to watch?

The Falcons visit the Raiders on Monday, December 16, 2024, with kick-off at Allegiant Stadium scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT. Viewers in the US can watch the action live on ESPN. If you don’t have cable, you can stream the game on the online service fubo, which offers new users a free introductory trial.

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