NFL
How important is the home-field advantage in the Divisional Round? Here’s what the stats say
Home-field advantage is a reward given to NFL teams in the playoffs, but just how beneficial is it, really? Here’s what the recent stats say about it.
In the NFL, the teams who finish first in their division at the end of the regular season are rewarded with home-field advantage in their first game of the playoffs. While it may indeed seem like an obvious advantage to play on one’s own home field, there are other factors, like weather for instance, that may add to or take away from that advantage. In the end, though, it does seem to trend in a positive direction for home teams in the postseason. Let’s take a closer look.
The home-field “advantage” in the NFL
Surprisingly, during the regular NFL season, home field doesn’t make much difference. Over 272 games in the 2024 season, home teams went 145-127, a .533 winning percentage (down from .555 in 2023).
In the playoffs, however, having the home field does seem to play a bigger part, at least recently. Over the last 10 years, home teams carry a 76-38 record (including this year’s Wild Card games) with nearly a touchdown difference in the scoring margin. In last year’s playoffs (2023-24 season), home teams went 5-1 in the Wild Card round, 3-1 in the Divisional, and 1-1 in the Conference Championship games, for a total record of 9-3 (the same as the 2022-23 season). That gives an 18-6 (.750) advantage for home teams in the playoffs over the last two seasons (a huge increase from the .670 mark since 1990).
In this year’s Wild Card round, five of the six winners had home-field advantage, although it should be noted that the victorious Los Angeles Rams ended up playing their “home” game against the Minnesota Vikings at a neutral stadium due to the LA wildfires occurring in the city at the time.
Because of the way the current NFL playoff format works (the divisional winners get the home field), the team with home-field advantage is not necessarily going to be the team with the better record and therefore not likely the favorite. The Vikings had the best record of any of the other team in the Wild Card round this season and were heavy favorites against the Rams, despite not having home-field advantage. Yet, they lost 27-9. The 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers were three-point road favorites against the Houston Texans. And yet they lost 33-12 at NRG Stadium.
In the Divisional Round, the Texans (11-7) will play at the home of the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2), the Washington Commanders (13-5) play at the home of the Detroit Lions (15-2), the Rams (11-7) play at the home of the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3), and the Baltimore Ravens (13-5) play at the home of the Buffalo Bills (14-4).
The No. 1 seeds in each conference, as the lone teams given a first-round bye week, will enter the playoffs in the Divisional Round. Since the NFL playoff format change in 2020, No. 1 seeds (who also obviously have the home field) have a playoff record of 11-7 (61.1 win percentage).
The top four seeds in this year’s playoffs - the Chiefs, Lions, Bills, and Eagles - all have home-field advantage in the Divisional round and all have winning records at home this season, a combined 31-3. So it seems that home field really is an advantage in the postseason, but anything can happen.
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