Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Divisional Round odds and predictions: Who is the favorite?

As they prepare to face each other in the NFL’s Divisional Round the Jaguars and Chiefs are coming from decidedly different paths. Jacksonville squeezed into the postseason and then profited off of their opponent’s collapse in the Wild Card Round, while Kansas City clinched yet another AFC West title.

Jaguars vs Chiefs: The Lay of the Land

Having defeated the Los Angeles Chargers in an eye-opening fashion, The Jacksonville Jaguars will now be on the hunt for their seventh consecutive victory, when they visit the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 NFL playoffs Divisional Round on Saturday. Prior to their win over the Chargers, the Jaguars of course clinched the AFC South title following a regular season campaign in which they finished 10-8. Speaking of that Chargers game, it’s worth noting that they came back from a 27-point deficit to beat the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card round.

Where the Chiefs are concerned, it’s been a case of business as usual. Following their seventh consecutive AFC West title, they ended the regular season with a 14-3 record and as we mentioned before, the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Incidentally, they actually beat the Jaguars 27-17 when they last met back in Week 10. It would take a brave person to bet against them doing so again when they host Jacksonville this weekend, but to be fair, stranger things have happened and this is after all the NFL playoffs. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri is set for 4:30 p.m. ET.

The well-oiled machine that is the Kansas City Chiefs

To be perfectly honest, Kansas City was brutal on offense during the regular season. Leading the league with an average of 413.6 total yards per game, they also did so in the air, with 297.8. That is due to the arm of an MVP candidate, Patrick Mahomes. Indeed, the Chiefs’ signal-caller has been in unbelievable form this year and unfortunately for the Jaguars, they experienced that firsthand back in Week 10. In that game, the 27-year-old threw for 331 yards in what would become one of eight contests in which he posted a minimum of three touchdown passes. Where the team itself is concerned, it’s worth noting that Kansas City has also led the league in points scored with 29.9 per game. Yet, we’ve got to say a little more about Mahomes who as we mentioned, has been doing his best to close the MVP conversation. With a league-leading 41 TD passes, the QB has truly been something to behold. On the other hand, so too has tight end Travis Kelce with a career-high 12 touchdown catches. Jacksonville could be in trouble.

Trevor Lawrence’s growth has been impressive

If there’s one thing we can say about the Jaguars, it’s that they’ve definitely improved. Ranking in the top 10 of the league in total yards (357.4), passing yards (232.9), and scoring (23.8 points), is quite an upgrade for a team that finished with a 3-14 record last season. Indeed, the Jaguars have at times looked like a completely different team from the one that repeatedly struggled a year ago. A large part of this upward movement has been due to second-year quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, as well as a number of players who are in their first year with the team. Yet, where the 23-year-old signal-caller is concerned, he’s been something else. After a maiden season in which he was visibly uncomfortable, the former No. 1 Draft pick has taken his passer rating from 71.9 to 95.2 in one year. Though he had a blip against the Chargers with four interceptions, he went on to complete 23-of-29 attempts, resulting in four touchdowns. On the receiving end of three of those passes were new boys Evan Engram (TE) and wideouts Zay Jones and Christian Kirk, who have all recorded career-highs in catches and receiving yards during their first season with the Jaguars.

Jaguars vs Chiefs: The Odds

Jaguars vs Chiefs: The Prediction

Here’s the thing: The Jaguars are clearly a different team since they tangled with the Chiefs back in Week 10. Add to that, the fact that confidence is running high following their performance against the Chargers, and chances are we’ve got a live wire on our hands. Yet, the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and Co. are the No. 1 seed in the AFC for a reason. While we expect Jacksonville to put up a fight in this one, we think it’s finally going to be the Chiefs that book their pass to the AFC Championship Game. To that end, we’re going with a 30 - 20 Kansas City Chiefs win.