Lions’ playoff hopes: Still hanging by a thread
The Detroit Lions’ Thanksgiving Day loss to the Green Bay Packers put them behind in the playoff race, but it’s not out of reach...yet.
The Detroit Lions are now sitting at 7–5 overall on the season. They’ve had moments of strong offensive performance (notably they average 29.2 points per game), but the last several weeks have been unkind: a frustrating loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving dropped them behind in the standings, and a win by the Chicago Bears over the weekend sealed Chicago’s (and Green Bay’s) edge over Detroit. What once looked like a comfortable position in the division has deteriorated, and now they’re scrambling to hold on to postseason relevance.
Where they stand: Division and conference picture
In the NFC North, Detroit is now third, behind the Chicago Bears (9–3) and the Packers (8–3–1). In the broader NFC playoff picture, they sit outside the bracket for now, meaning they’re fighting for either a division title (unlikely without big wins) or a Wild-Card berth.
Playoff chances and what’s realistic for the Lions
Before their recent slide, playoff-simulators and models gave Detroit a comfortable shot. In mid-season, some projections had them at around a 70.6% chance to reach the playoffs. After the Thanksgiving loss and the Bears’ victory however, those odds dropped significantly. Recent estimates now put their playoff probability around 32%. The Wild-Card route remains possible, but it’s delicate now.
Remaining Lions schedule and what needs to happen
Here is what remains for Detroit’s 2025 regular season:
- Week 14: vs Dallas Cowboys
- Week 15: @ Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: @ Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: @ Chicago Bears
That schedule is brutal: among the toughest in the league over the remaining weeks. For Detroit to make the postseason, here’s the minimum.
- Win at least 4 of the remaining 5 games. Losing two more likely ends the playoff chance. Realistically, 5-0 would guarantee staying alive; 4-1 might get them a Wild-Card spot depending on other teams.
- Handle the winnable games. Games against the Steelers and Vikings, while not automatic wins, represent favorable opportunities, especially at home vs Pittsburgh.
- Avoid collapse in tougher games. They need to compete and even steal a win against the Cowboys or Rams. If they give up blowout losses there, the margin for error disappears.
- Get consistent offense and tighten defense. The Lions still boast one of the more productive offenses in the league (respectable points and yardage numbers). But the defense must hold up, especially in divisional and conference games.
- Hope for some help in the Wild-Card race. Given how crowded the NFC is, even 10-11 wins might not guarantee a spot. Detroit will likely need slip-ups from other teams competing for Wild Cards.
The Lions are not dead yet. A 32% chance is far from zero. If the team rallies, with strong play, no major lapses, and a few favorable bounces, they could claw their way back into the playoff picture. But time is running out, and the margin for error is slim.
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