NFL 2025: Week 1 picks from Philadelphia to Buffalo and everything in between
From rookie mistakes to family rituals, we look at NFL Week 1, where champions, rookies and rivals collide with hope renewed.
In 2021 I sat down for the first time in the AS USA newsroom with the naïve belief of a rookie who thought writing NFL picks would be like calling a screen pass – easy, quick, risk-free. As if making predictions was no more than a lightning-round Q&A with your friends. The truth is there’s responsibility in knowing more than two people actually read what you write, and instead of that fast, safe throw I imagined, I ended up drowning in stats and video like I was prepping for a game, finishing just as worn down as Bill Belichick’s face at the end of the beating he took in his college debut with North Carolina. Then along came ChatGPT and I thought I’d finally be able to dictate everything to a robot while sipping a cold beer. That wasn’t true either. Reality is I still write until my back goes numb.
Over the years, depending on how you see it, everything changed or nothing did. Kansas City, for instance, went from being the team without even a decent cap at the mall to becoming the Disney of the NFL – Patrick Mahomes as the superhero, the rings as rides, Travis Kelce engaged to Taylor Swift, the league’s first honorary pop-culture tight end.
I changed too: I’m writing these lines while my daughter insists on dressing in anything stitched with a Buffalo Bills logo. It doesn’t matter if she swaps her diaper for one of those towels they toss around at Orchard Park – she walks around the house convinced Josh Allen is taking us to the Super Bowl. In her tiny vocabulary, a dangerous phrase has already appeared: “I love you, Josh.” And while my partner thinks I exaggerate, parents know what I mean. You hear those words even when they don’t really happen.
Don’t worry, this won’t turn into an NFL parenting guide. I also write for you – the ones scrolling your betting app as if it hides the formula for retiring before 40. You know it: no one gets rich here, but you can have a good time and, with luck, brag about hitting a parlay that covered a fancy dinner with a double scoop of ice cream in the milkshake.
The NFL is back. The school calendar marks the kids’ return to class, and like every first weekend of September we fire up the grills, dust off the jerseys and prepare for a 272-game journey that will end February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium with Super Bowl LX. Until then, every team believes they have a shot – and the stats back it up. Since 1990 at least four teams who missed the playoffs the year before make it back the next season. Most recently it was Denver, the Chargers, Minnesota and Washington in 2024.
Traditions remain too: the champions defending their crown on Thursday night. This year, the Philadelphia Eagles kick off their title defense hosting the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. An NFC East showdown in prime time, where memes and red-zone plays collide – Jalen Hurts getting shoved over the goal line, Dak Prescott trying to rewrite his story.
The international push doesn’t stop either. Friday, the league crosses borders: São Paulo hosts Chiefs-Chargers in just the second regular-season game in Brazil. A gift to southern cone fans, though everyone knows it’s also a market test to see how many $59 red caps they can sell.
Week 1 offers eight divisional matchups, something that’s only happened five times since 2002. And they’re not throwaways: Detroit goes to Lambeau with the chance to confirm the balance of power has shifted; meanwhile, Baltimore and Buffalo give us a playoff-like clash of MVPs – Lamar Jackson against Josh Allen; and Pittsburgh heads to New York to see if Aaron Rodgers can walk without blowing his Achilles again.
The numbers tell their own story: defending champions have won the Kickoff Game 20 of the last 25 seasons, making the Eagles the early favorites. Rookie quarterbacks will also get the spotlight: J.J. McCarthy with Minnesota on Monday Night, Cam Ward debuting as the Titans’ No 1 pick, and Drake Maye trying to drag New England out of the basement. In all, 12 teams start with a different passer than in 2024 – proof stability in the NFL is a myth, rebuilds lasting about as long as my daughter’s T-shirts fit.
And yes, every September we sing the same song: “This year is different.” They’re saying it in Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr., in Las Vegas with Geno Smith, with the Jets and Justin Fields, and in my house with the Bills. The past always threatens to repeat, but every September brings fresh hope.
No team has won their first Super Bowl since 2017, when Philadelphia beat New England to lift the Lombardi for the first time.
As for me, I only ask one thing: that the Bills give me a trip to Santa Clara in February. I’m not asking for an evil empire like the Pats, or the miracle of the Chiefs. Just a ticket, even if it’s in the 300 level, to watch Josh Allen raise that cursed trophy that’s slipped from our grasp since God created the Earth – or rather, the National Football League. For now, here I am, with my daughter in a Bills towel-diaper, waiting for Sunday night.
Game of the week
Ravens at Bills (-1.5)
The Ravens’ offense has shown it can torch anyone: they dropped 35 on Buffalo last September and nearly knocked us out in the Divisional. But as the guy dressing his kid in blue and white towels instead of diapers, I know this story reads differently in Orchard Park. Yes, the Bills’ defense unravels against real offenses, but this is at home, in the last season of that old stadium that reeks of beer, hot dogs and painful losses. Josh Allen comes in with MVP credentials and I won’t let anyone kill my dream this is the year. Baltimore can run, can control the clock, can boast discipline – but Allen will ruin their party. The Ravens get Zay Flowers and backup RB Keaton Mitchell back after both missed that playoff game. Baltimore out-performed Buffalo in head-to-heads last season, but turnovers and mistakes flipped January’s result. I backed Buffalo then and got lucky. This time, I don’t think Baltimore gets revenge. Ravens 30-33 Bills.
NFL Week1 Picks at a glance
Cowboys at Eagles (-7): Champs open with rings, banners and the favorite tag. Philly looks unbeatable after dismantling Kansas City in the Super Bowl like a Lego set. Dallas arrives with Brian Schottenheimer calling plays and a staff unsure if it’s “renewed” or “rebuilding.” Cowboys 17-28 Eagles
Chiefs at Chargers (-3): Mahomes makes Brazil his second home. Chargers fight but it’s déjà vu from Mexico 2019. Chiefs 24-20 Chargers
Raiders at Patriots (-2.5): Geno Smith in pirate cosplay. Drake Maye debuts in Foxborough with hope. Raiders 21-24 Patriots
Steelers (-2.5) at Jets: Rodgers swears his Achilles won’t snap first drive, but defense wins it in MetLife. Steelers 23-14 Jets
Dolphins at Colts (-1.5): Daniel Jones debuts in Indy, Tua brings the speed. Miami wave crashes late. Dolphins 27-24 Colts
Cardinals (-3.5) at Saints: Spencer Rattler learns the NFL isn’t college. Arizona plays playground bully. Cardinals 30-20 Saints
Giants at Commanders (-7): Russell Wilson throws hope, Washington’s D throws reality. Giants 16-24 Commanders
Panthers at Jaguars (-3.5): Jacksonville builds its zoo. Trevor Lawrence finishes the job. Panthers 21-26 Jaguars
Bengals (-4.5) at Browns: Ja’Marr Chase starts hot. Burrow unstoppable. Bengals 28-17 Browns
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Falcons: Mike Evans hunts records, but Atlanta flies high indoors. Buccaneers 20-24 Falcons
Titans at Broncos (-7.5): Cam Ward learns Mile High eats rookies. Denver statement win. Titans 14-31 Broncos
49ers (-1.5) at Seahawks: Purdy steady, Niners adjust late. 49ers 27-23 Seahawks
Lions at Packers (-1.5): Campbell defies Lambeau ghosts, but they still appear. Lions 24-27 Packers
Texans at Rams (-3.5): Chubb debuts with Houston, Adams with LA. Surprise ending. Texans 20-17 Rams
Vikings at Bears (-1.5): McCarthy nervous, but enough firepower. Vikings 23-20 Bears
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