NFL MVP odds after Week 10: Jackson takes command, Allen right behind, Mahomes falling

We are officially into the second half of the season and a couple things are very clear. First, it’s going to take a near miracle to hand this Kansas City Chiefs team their first loss. Plenty of teams have been right at the doorstep, but no one has been able to do it. Patrick Mahomes is a big part of that, despite not putting up MVP type numbers that we are used to. Lamar Jackson on the other hand is and so is Josh Allen. Both have their teams chasing the the Chiefs in the AFC, but it’s Allen and Mahomes chasing Jackson in the MVP race through Week 11.

Here are the MVP odds according to our friends at MGM Grand.

Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore Ravens (+110)

We knew we were in for a shootout from M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night. The Ravens and Bengals didn’t disappoint. After a overtime thriller in the first match up between the AFC North foes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow went toe-to-toe in a battle of heavyweight QBs. Burrow might have come out of the night with better numbers, and Lamar struggled in the first half going three-and-out on three of four drives. Once he got going there was no slowing him down. Baltimore had to chase the game after going down 14 early in the third quarter. Jackson would respond by lightning up the Bengals secondary, leading four straight TD drives to narrowly beat Cincy thanks to a failed two point conversion late in the game. After Week 10, Jackson is tied for the most passing TDs in the league, has the best passer rating, the second most passing yards and has thrown just two interceptions all season. Not to mention his 500+ yards rushing. At this point of the season there is no debate. Lamar Jackson is the MVP.

Pass stats: 69.1% CMP, 2,669 YDS, 24 TD, 2 INT, 123.2 RTG

Run stats: 91 CAR, 538 YDS, 2 TD

Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills (+350)

That’s five in a row for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, but it wasn’t the most comfortable of victories on a day that their defense forced four turnovers. Buffalo was up 10-0 in the first 10 minutes of the game thanks to two INTs in the first two Indy possessions. Allen and the Bills just had to protect the lead for the next 50 minutes, but a turnover on downs and an interception on back to back drives would allow the Colts to take the momentary 13-10 lead. That seemed to activate Allen who gave the lead back to Buffalo with a brilliant scramble that would put the Bills back in control for the rest of the game. Up by 10 in the fourth quarter the Bills defense came up with their final interception and Allen constructed a 13 play, 84 yard drive that buried the Colts with James Cook’s 2 yard run to put Buffalo up 17 with three minutes to go. Sometimes it’s not about stats. Sometimes drives like that are much more valuable than 400 yard games. Don’t want to take any shots at anyone, but look at Joe Burrow. He had 400+ and 4 TDs and lost. That’s why the Bills are 8-2 and second in the AFC and the Bengals are staring elimination.

Pass stats: 63.5% CMP, 2,281 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT, 100.2 RTG

Run stats: 55 CAR, 261 YDS, 4 TDS

Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City Chifes (+700)

Slowly but surely we are starting to see Patrick Mahomes put up the numbers we have become used to seeing during his short but successful reign over the rest of the NFL. In the last three games he has passed for 273 yards per game, 6 TDs and just 1 INT. That doesn’t mean that it’s been easy for the Chiefs. A narrow win over the Raiders, then an OT victory against the Bucs and on Sunday they needed a blocked field goal on the last play of the game to remain undefeated. He had 266 yards and 1 TD against Denver, but the Chiefs put up just 16 points. His numbers are getting better, but his MVP odds are getting worse. Mahomes is a winner, and he does what ever needs to be done to make sure his team is in the best position to win. If he needs to pass the ball, he airs it out. If he needs to hand the ball off, he hands the ball off. And lets remember that he’s doing this with a depleted WR corps.

Pass stats: 69.5% CMP, 2,208 YDS, 12 TD, 9 INT, 90.3 RTG

Run stats: 39 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD

Jalen Hurts, QB Philadelphia Eagles (+1300)

Doesn’t this feel like the Jalen Hurts from a couple of years ago? The Jalen Hurts that was just as much of a force in the running game as he was throwing the ball. His knee is healthier than it has been for a long time and that means the Eagles have gone back to being a force in the NFC. Other than the Lions they might be playing better than anyone in that conference and their record shows it. They are 7-2 and sitting second behind Detroit after their beat down of the Cowboys in Dallas. Hurts didn’t have to be spectacular against a decimated Dallas team. He put up 202 yards and two TDs while running for another 56 yards and two TDs as he and the rest of the starters got to sit the final 15 minutes as the Eagles prep for a massive Thursday night showdown with the Washington Commanders.

Pass stats: 69.8% CMP, 1,976 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT, 103.4

Run stats: 93 CAR, 378 YDS, 10 TD

Jayden Daniels, QB Washington Commanders (+1600)

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders suffered their third loss of the season, but it’s impossible to point the finger at the rookie QB. They went toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the AFC, and one of the best defenses in the league. Daniels may not have been as accurate as he has been all season, completing 50% of his 34 passes but he had 202 yards passing and the Commanders were up by 10 in the third quarter. It’s true that their offense shut down once they built up a double digit lead. They failed to punish the Steelers for fumbling the ball on the WAS 1 yard line, going three and out and eventually giving up their lead with just over 2:00 to go. Down by a point, Daniels had a chance to march his team into FG range, but Zach Ertz came up inches short of the line to gain on a 4th and 9 that would have put the Commanders in a position to kick a game winning field goal. Daniels has played two of the top teams in the AFC, the Ravens and the Steelers, and hasn’t blinked once. He’ll need that same sort of icy disposition against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Thursday night.

Pass stats: 68.7% CMP, 2,147 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT, 101.7 RTG

Run stats: 85 CAR, 464 YDS, 4 TD