NFL picks for 2025 Week 2: Can the Chiefs get Super Bowl revenge on the Eagles?

Midway through the fourth quarter of last weekend’s Sunday Night Football between the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills, I became one of those fans - the kind who bail before the final whistle. Baltimore was up 40–25, the clock was bleeding out, and the win probability algorithm gave Buffalo less than a one percent chance. I jumped ship and hopped into an Uber, heart as wilted as a bunch of cilantro forgotten in a bachelor’s fridge. But the NFL has a cruel way of punishing the faithless.

When I opened my front door, I found my partner half-naked, screaming at the TV in what looked like some kind of ritual. I couldn’t tell if she was channeling Josh Allen or the fury of the mob that stormed the Capitol in 2021 - but she was wild-eyed and possessed. And there it was: the miracle. Buffalo had scored and was just two points away from tying the game.

Then came the two-point conversion. Keon Coleman had it - until he didn’t. The ball slipped through his fingers like hope itself. As I mentally replayed some of the most gut-wrenching losses in Bills history, she turned to me and let out a cry that cut deep: “Billsleave.”A mashup of belief, broken English, cheap whiskey, and raw conviction - exactly what I’d lost twenty minutes earlier.

What happened next is already etched in the history books: the Bills became the first team in NFL history to overcome a 15-point deficit in the final four minutes and win in regulation. I was stunned. On one hand, my team had come back to life like Damar Hamlin on that dramatic Monday Night we can now laugh about; on the other, my partner - who three years ago couldn’t tell a fumble from an interception - was jumping with such joy it felt like we’d just won the Super Bowl… or were expecting our second child. Sadly, the first hasn’t happened. Thankfully, neither has the second.

My wife’s excitement - and a flurry of affectionate gestures - hinted at continuing the celebration in the bedroom. For anyone who’s managed to turn their partner into a fan of their favorite team, the scene might sound like a happy ending. But truth be told, at that moment, my idea of satisfaction was watching Josh Allen’s postgame press conference, followed by a breakdown of every key play that made the Orchard Park miracle possible.

And there I was - caught between euphoria and obsessive analysis - thinking about how a single result can flip our emotional state. It can take us from feeling hopeless to drunk on joy. You might not realize it, but winning in Week 1 lays the foundation for the rest of the season. Since 1990, history has shown that teams who win their season opener are more than twice as likely to make the playoffs compared to those who lose. Over that span, 54.2 percent of teams (294 out of 542) that started 1-0 punched their ticket to the postseason - including the Eagles and Chiefs, last year’s Super Bowl contenders, who’ll face off again this coming Sunday in a marquee matchup.

Game of the Week: Eagles vs Chiefs

The first Sunday of the 2025 season delivered a rollercoaster of emotions: improbable comebacks, last-second touchdowns, and an average margin of victory of just 7.56 points - the third-tightest Kickoff Weekend since 1970, trailing only 1979 (6.79) and 1983 (7.00). Twelve games were decided by a single possession - eight points or fewer - tying the all-time Week 1 record set in 2013.

Against that backdrop, Week 2 arrives with a chance for redemption. Philadelphia comes in riding high after dismantling Kansas City in the Super Bowl, 40-22. That afternoon in New Orleans, Jalen Hurts proved he’s more than just legs: 293 total yards, three touchdowns, and the kind of control at the line of scrimmage that made it look like he was skipping rope. With 16 regular-season games featuring multiple rushing touchdowns, Hurts has become the kind of quarterback who turns entire defenses into little more than decorative obstacles.

But the Chiefs are no walkover. At home, they’re nearly untouchable - one of just two teams to finish the 2024 season undefeated on their own turf. Since Patrick Mahomes took the reins in 2018, Kansas City leads the league in home wins (45) and boasts the highest home winning percentage (.776). Mahomes enters Week 2 with 292 career touchdown passes, just one shy of tying Peyton Manning for the most in a player’s first nine seasons.

The challenge is real. The Chiefs are coming off a long trip to Brazil, where the Chargers snapped a streak that had stood since 2021. The dynasty looks vulnerable, and the numbers are unforgiving: starting 0–2 in the NFL is like walking a tightrope over elimination. Over the past 35 years, only 12.2 percent of teams that began the season with two straight losses have made the playoffs, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Still, this matchup goes beyond the numbers. It’s about narratives and star power. Mahomes is a master of escaping when his back’s against the wall - just look at 2023, when he turned a looming defeat into a path toward the Lombardi Trophy. But history isn’t on his side: in immediate Super Bowl rematches, the defending champion has won seven of the last ten. In other words, Sunday promises a high-voltage clash: three touchdowns here, three there… but it’ll all come down to who controls the final seconds.

Pick: Eagles 27, Chiefs 24.

Quick picks:

Commanders at Packers (-3.5):

Washington is chasing a 2-0 start - something they’ve only managed twice in the past 15 years. But Green Bay hasn’t opened this strong since 2020.

Pick: Commanders 21, Packers 24

Cowboys at Giants (-5.5):

Dallas owns New York: 15 wins in their last 16 meetings.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 24

Bengals at Jaguars (-3.5):

Joe Burrow keeps chasing records, and Jacksonville hasn’t won a series against Cincy since 2001.

Pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 24

Bills at Jets (-7):

Buffalo’s coming off a historic comeback. Josh Allen looks like a nuclear reactor in cleats.

Pick: Bills 30, Jets 20

Ravens at Browns (-11.5):

Baltimore’s out for payback and boasts 10 straight September wins over Cleveland.

Pick: Ravens 34, Browns 17

Steelers at Seahawks (-3):

Aaron Rodgers has 507 career TDs. In Seattle, he’s chasing Favre and Rivers in one afternoon.

Pick: Steelers 24, Seahawks 20

Rams at Titans (-5.5):

Matthew Stafford has five 300-yard games since 2023. Tennessee barely averages 17 points at home.

Pick: Rams 27, Titans 18

Dolphins at Patriots (-1.5):

Miami’s defense couldn’t stop Daniel Jones. That’s a problem.

Pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 23

Bears at Lions (-5.5):

Both offenses disappointed, but Detroit gets respect for its divisional crown.

Pick: Bears 21, Lions 24

49ers at Saints (-.5):

San Francisco is 9–1 in its last 10 trips down South.

Pick: 49ers 28, Saints 24

Broncos at Colts (-2.5):

Denver’s defense didn’t allow a TD in Week 1. Indy knows it—and fears it.

Pick: Broncos 20, Colts 17

Cardinals at Panthers (-6.5):

Arizona survived the Saints. Carolina hasn’t started strong since 2018.

Pick: Cardinals 24, Panthers 19

Falcons at Vikings (-4.5):

Justin Jefferson averages 110 yards at home. Minnesota smells 2–0.

Pick: Vikings 30, Falcons 24

Texans at Buccaneers (-2.5):

CJ Stroud looks like a vet - 20 TDs in his last 10 games. Tampa escaped Atlanta by a miracle.

Pick: Texans 23, Buccaneers 21

Chargers at Raiders (-3.5):

Justin Herbert has 10 TDs in his last three games vs Vegas.

Pick: Chargers 26, Raiders 23

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