NFL Week 10: picks, bets and predictions

The first half of the season is over and we are heading into the final stretch with more doubts than certainties, particularly in the AFC.

Following the Bills surprise loss to the Jets, Buffalo and Kansas City are now 6-2, closely followed by Baltimore at 6-3. At the moment, those are the top three seeds in the AFC, in that order.

Tennessee (5-3) is the fourth division leader and then come Jets (6-3), Miami (6-3), Chargers (5-3), Patriots (5-4) and Bengals (5-4).

Any one of these nine teams have a realistic shot at earning the top seed and getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

In the NFC, things seem a little clearer, with Philadelphia (8-0) at the wheel, followed by Minnesota (7-1), Seattle (6-3), Tampa Bay (4-5), Dallas (6-2), the Giants (6-2) and San Francisco (4-4).

If the Eagles stumble the race will get interesting, but Philadelphia’s schedule is not the most demanding for coach Nick Sirianni’s team, at least for the next three games with Washington, Indianapolis and Green Bay on deck. Then the going will get tough as they prepare to play the Titans, Giants and Cowboys over a four-week span.

Watch out for Dallas and Seattle in final nine weeks before the playoffs start.

For now, let's go to the picks:

GAME OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Buffalo (-4)

It’s true, this game won’t be the same if Josh Allen can’t play.

The star quarterback of the Bills is evaluated “day by day” after suffering a ligament injury in his right elbow during the last offensive series against the Jets.

If Allen can’t play, then Case Keenum will make his starting debut with the Bills, his seventh team in 10 years.

Facing the Vikings will be special for Keenum. In his only season in Minnesota, in 2017, he went 11-3 and led the Vikes to the NFC Championship Game.

His record as a starter, however, is less impressive. He is 29-35, including 9-17 since leaving Minnesota.

Although Josh Allen is a big part of their running game (he leads the team with 392 yards and four touchdowns), to win this game the Bills have to run the ball and trust their defense to do the rest.

Minnesota is 7-1, but their wins are against Packers (3-6), Lions (2-6), Saints (3-6), Bears (3-6), Cardinals (3-6), Commanders ( 4-5) and Dolphins (6-3) without Tua Tagovailoa.

After the Bills game, the Vikes have to face the Cowboys, Patriots and Jets in consecutive weeks. So over the next four weekends we’re going to discover who Minnesota really is.

The pick: I’m going to assume Josh Allen will miss this game and that means a more even matchup, but even without their QB1 the Bills have enough talent to prevail at home on a very special day for Case Keenum against his former team. Buffalo 24-21 Minnesota

SURE PICK

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-6)

Unless Jeff Saturday is the real-life Ted Lasso, his only “mission” is to avoid disaster for the Colts’ season. Raiders 24-17 Colts

UPSET

Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Munich

Tom Brady is going to need another miracle to beat one of the best teams in the NFC. Seahawks 23-17 Bucks

TWO MINUTE DRIVE

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

Just two weeks ago these two teams delivered one of the wildest, most entertaining games of the season. We will be looking forward to another shootout on Thursday night. Falcons 31-28 Panthers

Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)

And in things that nobody cares about... Bears 27-24 Lions

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

The Jaguars aren't intimidated by anyone, but they still don't have the defense to deal with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City 30-20 Jacksonville

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

The Dolphins gave up 252 rushing yards last week; If they don't fix that right away, they're going to suffer the whole game against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Miami 27-24 Cleveland

Houston at New York Giants (-4.5)

Houston’s defense is the worst in the NFL against the run (allowing an average of 180.6 yards per game). Saquon Barkley will be licking his chops on Sunday. Giants 31-21 Texans

New Orleans (-2.5) at PittsburghI

I’m going with my gut here, and something tells me rookie Kenny Pickett will have a good game on Sunday. Steelers 23-20 Saints

Denver at Tennessee (-3)

In the past two weeks, Denver’s defense has allowed 346 rushing yards. Derrick Henry might flirt with 200 yards on Sunday. Titans 28-17 Broncos

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay

Cowboys coming off a bye against a depleted Packers team... It’s payback time for Big D. Dallas 28-17 Green Bay

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

The Cardinals play better on the road, but are 0-3 against division opponents. Rams 21-14 Cards

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

The 49ers have no margin for error. If they want to win the NFC West they can’t afford to lose a game the rest of the way. San Francisco 27-24 L.A.

Washington at Philadelphia (-11)

Washington’s defense has improved in recent weeks, but Jalen Hurts is having an MVP type season. Eagles 31-17 Commanders

Bye week: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, N.Y. jets

Last week: 9-4

Total in the season: 76-59-1

This Week’s best bets