Our picks for NFL Week 16: Ravens QB to preserve perfect streak

The Christmas season has that dangerous habit of promising more than it delivers. It presents itself as a finish line and sometimes ends up being nothing more than an awkward pause. The NFL, Netflix, and millions of people fell into the same trap this year—believing the calendar alone guarantees fulfillment.

I don’t want to play the bitter Grinch this time of year, nor do I want to ruin dinner before it’s served. The schedule says Week 16, and here I am already talking about the next one - but there’s good reason to do it.

The Christmas tripleheader shared by Netflix (two games) and Amazon looked like it had been crafted by a marketing department obsessed with guaranteed success. Cowboys vs. Commanders at noon, Lions vs. Vikings in the afternoon, and Broncos vs. Chiefs closing out the traditional Thursday Night slate. A feast designed to captivate audiences gathering for a holiday, to justify Netflix’s $75 million per game checks to the NFL, and to prove that streaming could take ownership of the festivities just as successfully as on Thanksgiving. Spencer Wang, Netflix’s CFO, said last year that the investment for each of the two December 25th games was equivalent to the budget of a mid‑sized movie.

Dallas lost, and its path to the playoffs turned into an impossible road. The Cowboys now have just a one‑percent chance of reaching the postseason bracket. Washington has gone from inspirational story to eliminated team. The Vikings were knocked out last week, minutes before walking into AT&T Stadium to face the Boys, and the Lions are barely breathing. Kansas City, the last emotional anchor of the lineup, lost more than once to the Chargers. They lost Patrick Mahomes - limping to the locker room in a scene fit for Halloween.

The Christmas slate was wounded before even kicking off. No clear villains, no available heroes - just three flavorless games. There’s something deeply human in that collapse. December is often the month when we settle accounts with ourselves, when we grow introspective and at the same time feel deeply disappointed by the bonus that didn’t come, the recognition pushed back indefinitely. We expect the end of the year to reward the grind, but the truth is, it rarely does.

The NFL owns Thanksgiving with audiences surpassing 50 million, as happened with the Chiefs-Cowboys game. Christmas tried to replicate the formula. It didn’t work. Just like believing a date on the calendar can fix everything the year didn’t.

But there’s a strange kind of beauty in accepting that fall. In recognizing that even the giants of the industry miscalculate. That big days can feel small. That not every failure requires a villain.

Game of the Week: Patriots (-2.5) at Ravens

The most important matchup of the season’s 16th Sunday carries a mix of score‑settling and a broken mirror. The cold drifts in from the bay, the stands at M&T Bank Stadium close in on the field, and the night turns every offensive series into a pivotal moment. New England arrives in Baltimore still shaped like a powerhouse, but with the crack exposed by Buffalo. That 21‑point lead that evaporated last Sunday didn’t just cost a game - it exposed an emotional fragility rarely associated with the Patriots when December tightens. The loss rattled certainties, cooled off a 10‑game winning streak, and revived doubts about their legitimacy as Super Bowl contenders.

Weeks ago, the NFL recognized the weight of this matchup. It moved from a quiet afternoon slot to the full spotlight of Sunday Night Football. Night games in Baltimore are exams without anesthesia. It’s not the first time these teams have met under the lights, although the memories haven’t been kind to New England. They’ve lost there in 2012 and 2019, and only imposed their will in 2020 when they won 23-17 in Foxborough. This will be their fourth primetime meeting in that setting, with a radically different context for both sides.

The Patriots need a win to secure their first playoff trip since 2021. They finished last in their division in 2024, and recent NFL history shows that quick rebounds aren’t unusual. At least one team has gone from worst to first the following year in 19 of the last 22 seasons. New England wants to join that statistic, but the schedule hands them a brutal test.

Baltimore doesn’t arrive comfortable, but it arrives hungry. Lamar Jackson has built a quiet, devastating end‑of‑season narrative. Between Weeks 15 and 18, he owns a perfect 16‑0 mark - the best for any quarterback in league history. It’s not a flashy streak; it’s a habit. Winning when margins disappear. On the other sideline, Drake Maye is just beginning to understand that terrain, and his 1‑4 record in the same stretch speaks to growing pains.

Lamar is no longer the Night King of old. In 2025, the Ravens are 1‑3 in primetime, far from the 20‑5 mark he’d built in previous years. New England, meanwhile, is the only unbeaten road team this season, and a win would make them 7‑0 away from home - something they’ve achieved only twice in their history.

The history between franchises adds more layers. Since Baltimore returned to the NFL in 1996, they’ve met 13 times in the regular season and four times in the playoffs. New England leads 9‑3 in regular season meetings and is tied 2‑2 in the postseason, with all playoff games played in Foxborough. In Baltimore, the margin is tighter - 3‑2 Patriots - with an unforgettable 2019 night when the Ravens snapped New England’s 8‑0 start with a 37-20 win that foreshadowed that team’s collapse.

All of that intersects with one uncomfortable stat. Since 1990, teams that lose a double‑digit winning streak in December or later and enter the next week as underdogs are 0‑4 straight‑up and against the spread. The Patriots fit that profile perfectly.

This matchup promises tension and fireworks. Baltimore knows every win counts, and its defense has begun finding rhythm when it matters most. New England arrives with full control of its division. The Ravens are chasing the Steelers atop the NFC North. With Jackson heating up at year’s end, Baltimore has a prime opportunity to beat the Patriots and keep pressure on Pittsburgh. Patriots 24-27 Ravens

Quick picks for Week 16:

• Rams at Seahawks (-1.5):

The Rams have won two straight and eight of their last nine. I like their momentum and expect them to beat Seattle despite the injury absences. Rams 33-30 Seahawks

• Eagles (-6) at Commanders:

Philadelphia won’t pass up the chance to lock up the division against a team that has been modest - if not outright mediocre. Eagles 27-20 Commanders

• Packers (-1.5) at Bears:

The season‑ending injury to Micah Parsons is a tough blow for Green Bay. Packers 17-20 Bears

• Bengals at Dolphins (-1.5):

A game with zero appeal. Miami benched Tua Tagovailoa in a move that feels a lot closer to tanking. Bengals 30-17 Dolphins

• Bills (-10) at Browns:

Buffalo stormed back from 21 down in Foxborough. The trip to Cleveland won’t be as easy as the numbers suggest. Bills 24-21 Browns

• Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers:

A game where the winner takes control of the NFC. A clear playoff‑flavored matchup. Bucs 24-21 Panthers

• Chargers at Cowboys (-2.5):

Pride is the only thing keeping the Boys upright - and that often weighs more than logic. Chargers 24-27 Cowboys

• Chiefs (-3.5) at Titans:

Kansas City will get a win in honor of Mahomes. Of course, it helps when the opponent is Tennessee. Chiefs 20-17 Titans

• Vikings (-3) at Giants:

Not much to look forward to in this one. J.J. McCarthy’s development is one of the few exceptions. Vikings 30-24 Giants

• Jets at Saints (-4.5):

The Saints pulled off a surprise win over the Panthers, and they’ll keep that rhythm at home against New York. Jets 14-17 Saints

• Jaguars at Broncos (-3):

Denver holds the longest active winning streak at 11. That ends here. Jaguars 24-20 Broncos

• Falcons (-2.5) at Cardinals:

Bijan Robinson could have a field day in Arizona and power Atlanta to the win. Falcons 20-14 Cardinals

• Steelers at Lions (-6.5):

Detroit is desperate to stack wins at this point in the season. That rarely helps - but Sunday will be one of those rare cases. Steelers 20–30 Lions

• Raiders at Texans (-14.5):

Houston’s defense might cover the spread all by itself. Raiders 10-27 Texans

• 49ers (-6) at Colts:

Philip Rivers returning at age 44 is a great story, but it won’t be enough to win. 49ers 30-21 Colts

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