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Proof in the pudding? The stats that might indicated the Chiefs are being favored by the refs

The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to a third straight Super Bowl as they look to make history, but some are saying that their run has been aided the refs.

Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rushes the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first half in the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Denny MedleyUSA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

If you aren’t a Chiefs fan, and you are already tired of all the three-peat talk, than it’s probably best you go off the grid for the next two weeks. If you are a Chiefs fan and you are tired of the narrative that the refs have been aiding your team through their reign of dominance over the last few years, than it’s probably best you close out of this article right now.

Complaints starting to pile up

Let me preface this by saying I neither love the Chiefs, nor loathe them. I am simply a journalist who saw an interesting stat and feel the need to put pen to paper and shed light on stats. Not theory. Stats.

Before we get into the numbers, we should go over the rising number of gripes there have been from Chiefs opponents along the way, and non opponents alike. Joe Mixon, Will Anderson Jr. and C.J. Stroud all sounded off on the refs after a couple of questionable flags that were thrown after supposed late hits to Patrick Mahomes in the Houston Texans loss to the Chiefs.

The Baltimore Ravens didn’t play the Chiefs in this year’s playoffs, but their corner back Marlon Humphrey has chipped in more than once since the Ravens were knocked out of the playoffs by the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. He went to X, claiming he wanted to see any of the remaining teams beat the Chiefs, and stating “they can’t keep getting away with this.” Then he went after the refs after Bills QB Josh Allen was ruled short of the marker on a 4th and inches play from Arrowhead.

Suspicious stats?

Now that we have introduced you to the complaints of those who have been most closely impacted by these calls, let’s run you through the stats. Before the game against the Bills on Sunday, the Chiefs had played 11 postseason games since the 2021 season’s playoffs. They did lose one of those games against the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021 AFC Championship, but that doesn’t affect the stats that are coming up. And if we are being fair, the Chiefs dynasty wasn’t really the Chiefs dynasty yet

In those 11 games, Kansas City was called for defensive holding or defensive pass interference three times, and their opponents were called for 11 holding or pass interference penalties. The Chiefs have been called for one roughing the passer penalty in those 11 games, while their opponents were flagged for seven roughing the passer penalties. Finally, opponents have been penalized fo unnecessary roughness four times in 11 games, while the Chiefs have been flagged just once.

In all, these penalties have directly led to 18 total points for the Chiefs. That doesn’t seem like that much when you consider it’s through a span of 11 games, but when you take in to account that eight of those were one possession games, those calls become massively important in dictating the outcome.

Not just flags

Last game against the Bills, penalties weren’t spotlighted like they have been in the past. It’s true that Kansas City was flagged for fewer penalties and totaled fewer penalty yards than Buffalo (6 for 48 yards BUF, 5 for 21 yards KC) which makes it 11 of their last 12 playoff games that the other team has had more total penalty yardage, but Buffalo’s quarrel with Sunday’s game will be more about the replays, and the referees decisions after the replays than with the flags.

The 4th and inches play which we mentioned early, couldn’t have been closer, and that play went against the Bills after no evidence was found to change the call made on the field. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said, “I thought he had it,” McDermott told the media. “Just short of the line was actually the first down, what it looked like to me when it was sitting next to me with the marker, just inside that white stripe was the first down and it looked like he got to it. That’s all I can say.” Kansas City would go on to score a TD to take a 29-22 lead in the 4th quarter.

The other questionable decision came on a Chiefs 3rd and 5 late in the 2nd quarter. Patrick Mahomes took a deep shot to Xavier Worthy which was called a catch despite the ball hitting the ground as the rookie receiver fell to the turf. The refs took another look at the play and the call stood which led to a Chiefs TD five plays later.

The Chiefs are a great team. There in no debating that. It’s also hard to argue with the stats. Maybe they are such a good team that the only way opponents feel they need to try and bend the rules just to knock the Chiefs off their throne. One thing is for sure. Both teams fan bases will want a cleanly called Super Bowl. The Eagles will so they will feel like they have a fair chance to beat the Chiefs and Chiefs will be hoping for the same so they don’t have to hear the haters taint what could and would be a historic three-peat.

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