Quarterbacks, a common trap of the NFL Draft

Tonight, Thursday 27 April, we have the latest edition of the NFL Draft and with it returns the topic that dominates before and during the top end of the college recruitment: quarterbacks.

Update! In the 2023 NFL draft quarterbacks went first, second and fourth picks, Bryce Young to the Panthers, C.J. Stroud to the Texans and Anthony Richardson to the Colts.

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Drafting quarterbacks: making the right catch

The Draft is the ‘safest’ way to get a franchise quarterback, the curious cog in the wheel that can falter and leave hundreds of general managers and head coaches unemployed. Quarterbacks are by far the most overvalued players in the Draft, and few teams can claim to have made a good decision with a first-round pick invested in a the ‘main man’.

For every Peyton Manning or Joe Burrow, there is a Ryan Leaf, a Tim Couch, a David Carr, a JaMarcus Russell, a Sam Bradford, an EJ Manuel, or a Blake Bortles, to name just a few. However, teams must keep trying; take the risk of drafting a quarterback with the first available pick and cross their fingers that the plan works.

Because otherwise, at least four or five years will be lost, and you will have to start looking again.

The Draft quarterback tradition

Since 1967, a quarterback has been selected with the first pick in the NFL Draft 26 times, around 50%, including four of the five most recent Drafts: 2021 (Trevor Lawrence), 2020 (Joe Burrow), 2019 (Kyler Murray), and 2018 ( Baker Mayfield).

Of all of them, the only one who couldn’t lead his team to the Playoffs at least once is Baker Mayfield, who, in five seasons, went from Cleveland to Carolina and then to the Rams before now signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with whom he will try to rescue his career starting this year.

The 2022 Draft, however, broke with the trend, and it took 20 picks for the first quarterback to finally hear his name. It was Kenny Pickett, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 20th pick in the first round. Pickett started 12 games, finished with a 7-5 record, and today is the great hope of the Steelers, who won a pair of Super Bowls with Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th overall pick in the 2004 Draft.

The case of Brock Purdy and the 49ers

To give an example of how unpredictable drafting a quarterback can be, you don’t have to look far. In 2022, the San Francisco 49ers, who had veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and young Trey Lance on the roster, used their seventh-round pick (262 overall) on Brock Purdy, a product of Iowa State.

Lance, their 2021 first-round pick (no. 3 overall), was hurt early in the season and then was joined on the injured list by Jimmy G, so the Niners had to turn to Purdy. And the rookie responded with six consecutive wins, five to close out the regular season and one more in the playoffs -- in the Divisional Round against the Dallas Cowboys. Purdy went on to injure his right elbow in the NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Still, his performance left the 49ers general manager John Lynch more than convinced, who is now reportedly considering ditching Lance, probably within three days of the Draft.

The first round is for the QBs

Three times since 1967, the first three picks in the NFL Draft have been quarterbacks. It happened in 2021 with Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), and Trey Lance (3). Lawrence had a strong 2022 season and led the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Divisional Round, but Wilson is set to be Aaron Rodgers’ backup with the Jets, and Lance could have a new team at the start of the 2023 season in September.

Also, in 1971 and 1999, the first three picks were quarterbacks. According to some experts, the 2023 Draft could see at least four quarterbacks drafted from the top 15 overall picks, which has only happened five times in history, most recently in 2021.

The Carolina Panthers traded with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick, and it’s a given that coach Frank Reich’s team will draft a quarterback. The Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts remain with picks 2, 3, and 4, respectively, and that means at least two other quarterbacks could hear their name early in the Draft.

The Cardinals gave Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, a $230.5 million five-year contract extension in July 2022. The Tennessee Titans (11) and Washington Commanders (16) also need a quarterback and could trade with the Cardinals to move up to that prime third position.

Quarterback hopefuls: Young or Stroud?

The heavy favorite to be the first name Commissioner Roger Goodell announces tonight is Alabama’s Bryce Young, a 2021 Heisman winner and a proven leader in one of the most successful programs in college football in recent years. However, the concern of some scouts is his height since he measures 1.77 meters, something well below NFL standards.

If the Panthers aren’t 100% sold on Young, their option is Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. He was a finalist in the Heisman race in his last two seasons with the Buckeyes and, in that period, was the top quarterback in the NCAA. He’s a pocket passer with a powerful arm and terrific accuracy, attributes he displayed in one of the College Football Playoff semifinals against Georgia’s seemingly intractable defense.

A notch or two below Young and Stroud are Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker. Levis is helped by having played in a pro-style offense at Kentucky. He has a strong arm and is athletic, but the team that drafts him must work on his tendency to make poor decisions.

Richardson is the least experienced of the four, having only started one season in Florida. Still, many scouts are convinced he has the most potential of any quarterback in the Class of 2023. Or, as they put it, “the highest ceiling.” Richardson has all the tools and talent to be a star in the NFL, but he needs time to develop. Hooker, the 25-year-old who played five seasons at Tennessee and Virginia Tech, comes into the Draft after undergoing ligament surgery on his left knee. Despite this, many experts believe he will be drafted at the end of the first round.

There will always be more misses than hits, but that’s what we’ve come to expect when picking a quarterback in the NFL Draft.

So if your team needs a franchise quarterback, good luck. You’re going to need it.