Seattle’s Super Bowl success may cost them Kenneth Walker

Earlier today, it was reported that the Seattle Seahawks are unlikely to use the franchise tag on running back Kenneth Walker III, per league sources. But the real story may be what that decision signals about Walker’s long-term future.

No franchise tag? What it means for Kenneth Walker and Seattle

Walker is set to become an unrestricted free agent in March after playing the final year of his rookie contract with a cap hit of just under $2.7 million. The projected franchise tag for running backs this offseason is approximately $14.5 million, while the transition tag would cost around $11.7 million.

Choosing not to use either tag would remove Seattle’s short-term safety net and potentially increase the urgency around a long-term extension.

What would an extension cost?

The running back market has shifted in recent years, but elite producers still command significant money. Top-tier backs currently earn in the $14–16 million per year range, while strong starters typically fall between $10–13 million annually.

Coming off a Super Bowl MVP performance, Walker’s camp could reasonably argue he belongs near the upper end of that second tier, if not higher.

A realistic extension projection might look like:

• 3 years, $36–42 million total
• Average annual value: $12–14 million
• Guarantees likely in the $20+ million range

Structurally, that type of deal would allow Seattle to keep Walker’s first-year cap hit lower than the $14.5 million franchise tag, using signing bonus proration to spread the impact across multiple seasons.

In other words, extending him could actually provide more cap flexibility in 2026 than tagging him. But the decision appears to be tied to bigger-picture roster planning.

Seattle has multiple free agents they hope to retain and are also expected to pursue an extension for wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Add in financial escalators and bonuses tied to a Super Bowl season, sometimes referred to as the “Super Bowl tax”, and the front office may be prioritizing long-term flexibility over a one-year spike at running back.

Even after dominant seasons, teams have shown increasing caution when committing premium money to running backs long-term. Positional value remains part of the conversation, regardless of individual production.

If Seattle truly declines to tag him, Walker’s leverage increases. Without the tag, he can negotiate freely and the open market could set his value. The Seahawks would risk losing exclusive negotiating control. That doesn’t mean he’s leaving. But it does mean Seattle would need to move decisively if they want to secure him before outside offers reshape the discussion.

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