Steelers’ playoff hopes: Still alive, but barely

The 2025 season has been a bumpy ride for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming out of Week 13, the Steelers sit at 6–6. Their most recent matchup, a 26–7 loss at home to the Buffalo Bills, exposed many of the same problems that have plagued them all season: inconsistent offense, a defense that’s failed to generate impact, and growing concern around key injuries.

A promising early stretch has given way to a slide: after going 4–1 to start the season, the Steelers have fallen in three of their last four games. What once looked like a potential runaway atop the division has instead become a hanging-on-by-the-skin-of-its-teeth bid for relevance.

Where things stand: division and conference picture

In the AFC North, the Steelers are tied with the Baltimore Ravens, both holding 6–6 records. But the Ravens currently own the tiebreaker thanks to a better record against common opponents (5–2 to Pittsburgh’s 4–3).

In the broader AFC playoff picture, Pittsburgh sits outside the bracket but within reach. Their only realistic path to the postseason is via winning the division; their chances for a Wild Card berth are effectively none.

The math: What are the Steelers’ playoff chances?

By the latest playoff simulations, the Steelers have roughly a 29% chance of reaching the postseason. Their odds of winning the AFC North sit at about 28%, while their chance of sneaking in as a Wild Card without winning the division is just 1%.

The final five: Remaining schedule and what’s next for the Steelers

With five games remaining, here’s what Pittsburgh faces down the stretch:

• Week 14: vs Baltimore Ravens
• Week 15: vs Miami Dolphins
• Week 16: @ Detroit Lions
• Week 17: @ Cleveland Browns
• Week 18: vs Baltimore Ravens

The two games against the Ravens are the most significant. Those matchups may ultimately decide whether the Steelers get in or go home. But the games against the Dolphins, Lions and Browns aren’t must-wins in name only. Losing any of them would heavily hurt their chances.

What needs to happen: The Steelers’ blueprint

For Pittsburgh to crawl its way into the playoffs, here’s what has to go right, and some things that have to go their way:

• Beat Baltimore, ideally twice. With the division tiebreaker against them, splitting won’t be enough unless the Steelers dominate the other games. Sweeping the Ravens would hand them the division title.
• Win every winnable game. Miami and Cleveland should be winnable if the Steelers show up. Getting those wins is non-negotiable. A loss to either could doom the division hopes.
• Avoid collapse against tougher foes. The road game in Detroit could be a trap. The Steelers must stay sharp and avoid a letdown.
• Get consistent, clean performances. The offense needs to click; the defense needs to make stops. No more flat games or “well, we tried” efforts. Consistency will be the difference between life and death for this season.
• Have a little luck. Even if Pittsburgh wins out, they still need scenarios elsewhere to go their way (division losses by Baltimore, Wild-Card contenders slipping up, etc.).

The window for the Steelers isn’t closed just yet, but it’s small. With a 29% chance of postseason qualification, their survival depends on near-flawless execution over the final five games and sweeping a division they’ve trailed for weeks.

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