The Broncos’ AFC Title game is a Sean Payton test, not a Jarrett Stidham one

All eyes are on Jarrett Stidham as he will take the first snap for the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday against the New England Patriots. Stidham, filling in for injured Bo Nix, hasn’t started a meaningful game in over two years. He’s stepping in cold, on the road, with a Super Bowl berth at stake.

But whether the Broncos win or lose, the game won’t just be about Stidham. It’ll be about head coach Sean Payton.

Sean Payton’s biggest test

When the Broncos hired Payton in 2023, they knew he was more than just a quarterback whisperer. Payton came with structure and experience. His offense is supposed to hold up even when the quarterback situation doesn’t.

That is being put to the test this weekend with a postseason quarterback injury and a roster that’s got the potential to contend despite it. The season doesn’t have to end here. Bo Nix has been steady enough to get Denver here. Losing him obviously hurts, but it shouldn’t break everything if the system is as sound as advertised. And Payton has real history to back him up.

In 2019, he lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury and turned the offense over to Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints went 5-0 during that stretch by turning games into defensive battles and trusting Bridgewater to avoid mistakes rather than chase big plays.

In 2021, with Brees retired and no long-term answer at quarterback, Payton still coached them to a 9-8 season with a carousel of quarterbacks that included Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book, all while keeping the Saints in the playoff race until the final week.

Even earlier, Payton routinely built game plans that insulated backups and role players, trusting structure and sequencing over improvisation. The philosophy has always been the same: don’t ask the quarterback to save you...ask him to stay within the shape of the offense. And that’s exactly what Denver will do with Stidham.

Rather than expecting Stidham to play the hero and match Drake Maye snap for snap, they need quick decisions, protected pockets, defined reads, and above all, ball security. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep this game close. Payton knows leverage matters more than volume, especially in the postseason. Field position, possession, and avoiding one catastrophic mistake matter more than any single explosive play.

The question now is whether the Broncos can still survive now that adversity has hit them hard. And the answer to that lies in Payton’s system, and whether or not it really is built to weather the storm.

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