The NFL reaches judgment day as playoff spots and top seeds go on the line

San Francisco, which will host Super Bowl LX on February 8, is starting to feel a whole lot closer, particularly for the 12 teams that have already locked in their place in the NFL playoffs, which begin next week. Before that, this weekend, the regular season comes to an end, with plenty still on the line. The No. 1 seed in both the AFC and NFC remains undecided, a coveted prize that comes with a first-round bye on Wild Card Weekend. The final two playoff spots are also still up for grabs, and fate has arranged them in two direct showdowns that promise fireworks.

End of the NFL regular season

The final, 18th week of the regular season kicks off Saturday with a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers (4:30 p.m. ET), which will determine the NFC South champion and, as a result, the conference’s last playoff qualifier. The winner will claim the No. 4 seed and the right to host a Wild Card game against the No. 5 seed — almost certainly a dangerous opponent. Carolina, one of the season’s surprise teams, is chasing its first playoff appearance since 2017 and enters at 8–8, also aiming to finish with a winning record for the first time since that season.

Panthers and Bucs: very different seasons

If the Panthers, led by a steady Bryce Young, have been a revelation, the Buccaneers have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments. They opened the year by winning six of their first eight games, with Baker Mayfield playing at an MVP level, but unraveled down the stretch. Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight games, including four straight, one of them a 23–20 defeat to Carolina two weeks ago. A loss — or even a tie, which would also benefit Carolina — would leave the Bucs at 7–9 and out of the playoffs for the first time since 2019, the year before Tom Brady arrived. That’s the NFL for you: a team with a losing record can make the playoffs, while others like the Vikings or Lions can finish above .500 and still be eliminated. Division winners qualify automatically, with the remaining spots going to the best records in each conference.

49ers vs Seahawks

Later on Saturday the NFC’s top seed will also be decided in another head-to-head clash. The San Francisco 49ers host their archrivals, the Seattle Seahawks, at Levi’s Stadium (8:00 p.m. ET), which will host the Super Bowl in a month. The winner takes the NFC West and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Both teams have exceeded expectations in a division where the Los Angeles Rams, who are also playoff-bound, were widely seen as favorites.

Seattle (13–3) has thrived despite modest expectations for Sam Darnold in his first season with the team, while San Francisco (12–4) has battled through a wave of significant injuries, including to Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams. Seattle’s defense will pose a major challenge for Brock Purdy, who is coming off back-to-back five-touchdown performances and continues to gain league-wide recognition. The Cinderella has become an NFL star. At stake is a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Steelers and Ravens go head to head

The third marquee game of the weekend comes on Sunday night, when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their classic rivalry with the AFC North title on the line (8:20 p.m. ET). As with Buccaneers–Panthers, the winner will be the No. 4 seed in the conference and the final team into the postseason. The loss will sting for either side.

The Steelers (9–7), in their first season with legendary quarterback Aaron Rodgers, have missed the playoffs only nine times this century. The Ravens (8–8), who expect to have Lamar Jackson back from injury, are another team that entered the season with much higher expectations. Pittsburgh could have sealed its playoff spot last week, but a stunning loss to the Cleveland Browns, marked by an offensive collapse, left everything unresolved.

Sorting out the rest of the NFL

Elsewhere on Sunday, there is still plenty to sort out. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (13–3) currently hold the top seed. A win by Bo Nix and company against the Los Angeles Chargers (11–5), who are also playoff-bound and jockeying for position, would secure it. A Denver loss could open the door for the New England Patriots (13–3), who would need to beat the eliminated Miami Dolphins (7–9), or the Jacksonville Jaguars (12–4), who need help and a win over the struggling Tennessee Titans (3–13). Seeds five through seven in the AFC are also up for ordering, currently held by the Houston Texans, Chargers, and Buffalo Bills, all at 11–5. Already eliminated are the Kansas City Chiefs (6–10), who have been without Patrick Mahomes after a ligament tear.

The NFC standings will also shake out. The loser of the 49ers–Seahawks game will drop into the lower seeds alongside the Los Angeles Rams (11–5) and Green Bay Packers (9–6–1).

Finally, the top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft will be decided, with the Las Vegas Raiders (2–14) controlling their fate and locking it up with a loss to the Chiefs.

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