The statistic that could deny Mahomes and the Chiefs a Super Bowl three-peat

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs finished alongside the Detroit Lions as the two best teams of the 2024/25 NFL regular season. Their reward will be a week of rest before the playoffs, in which they will be looking to make history by becoming the first team to win three consecutive championships.

In theory. finishing the regular season 15 wins should be synonymous with being the big favorites to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy, but the data shows otherwise. The last five teams to win 15 or more games in the regular season have all failed in their quest to win the Super Bowl.

In 1998, the Minnesota Vikings of Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith and a rookie Randy Moss finished with an impressive record of 15 wins and one loss. However, the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with 14 wins and two losses, beat them in the Championship Round 30-27 in overtime to end the dream.

In 2004, the Steelers also finished with a record of 15 wins and one loss as the best team in the AFC. Yet, Ben Roethlisberger and company were faced with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who finished with a 14-2 record and ended up beating them 41-27 and leave them unable to compete in the Super Bowl.

In the 2007-2008 season, Tom Brady was on his way to becoming the first undefeated champion since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. However, Eli Manning and the New York Giants won 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII to thwart Brady’s dream.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers finished the 2011-2012 season as the NFC’s top team with a record of 15-1. After a first-round bye, the 9-7 New York Giants prevailed 37-20 to knock them out of contention.

The last team that tried to break the 15-win curse were the Carolina Panthers, who managed to win the NFC title after beating the Arizona Cardinals 49-15, but the story ended with a 24-10 loss to Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos.

A difficult but not an impossible mission

In spite of what has happened in the past, Kansas City and Detroit’s mission is not impossible. There have been three instances of teams finishing on 15 victories or that have gone on to win the Super Bowl - something that Andy Reid’s and Dan Campbell’s teams will seek to repeat.

The perfect Miami Dolphins are the only team to remain undefeated champions after posting a 17-0 season before capping it off with a 14-7 win over Washington at Super Bowl VII.

Joe Montana’s San Francisco 49ers finished with a record of 15 wins and only one loss. The Western Conference champions beat the Miami Dolphins 38-16 at Super Bowl XIX in 1985 to achieve their goal.

The last team to be crowned after 15 wins was the Chicago Bears, who just one year after San Francisco’s feat, beat the New England Patriots 46-10. Can the Chiefs and Lions break the cycle?

The bookmakers think it’s possible. The Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl with a +375, while the second on the list are precisely the Detroit Lions with +400.