Top 10 2023 fantasy football QB rankings

Fantasy football is not exactly like the NFL. Whereas you will construct a team around a star quarterback in real life, when it comes to fantasy leagues, the name of the game is picking the individual players who will convert performance to points for your team.

Conventional wisdom is not to take a quarterback early in the draft. Traditionally that would be the sign of a newbie or at the least someone who had no chance of winning their league. In recent years, however, that has been turned on it’s head by the record-breaking performance of quarterbacks.

Let’s take a look at the top ten quarterbacks for your fantasy draft.

1. Jalen Hurts

In all honesty, the top three could be shuffled in any way you see fit, they will all stake a claim to the top pick. Hurts has raised his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt while simultaneously lowering his interception rate from the previous season each year in the NFL. The first quarterback in league history to have back-to-back seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns, Hurts is coming off of the easiest schedule in the NFL last season.

2. Josh Allen

Widely believed as having the best combination of passing and rushing upside in fantasy, Allen threw at least 35 passing scores with over 4,000 yards through the air in each of the last three seasons. From a rushing perspective, Allen added another 762 yards and seven scores via his legs. He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in all five of his years in the league.

3. Patrick Mahomes

You are getting a high floor paired with a strong ceiling. Mahomes has been a top-six scorer in points per game in all five seasons as a starter. Even after the trade of Tyreek Hill and working with a rotating motley crew of pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce, Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards (5,250), touchdowns (41), and expected points added per dropback (0.27). He even added a career-high 3.5 rushing points per game last season.

4. Lamar Jackson

Opened 2022 on fire with 12 total touchdowns over the opening three games before the wheels fell off. Jackson had just eight total touchdowns throwing and rushing over his final nine games of the season. He has missed 11 games over the past two years and has failed to recapture the 2019 magic that made him the fantasy MVP that season. After 11 top-six and nine top-three scoring weeks in 2019, Jackson has combined for 11 top-six and six top-three scoring weeks over the past three seasons. With the Ravens collapsing offensively the past two years without Jackson, the team finally has gotten serious about upgrading his playmakers.

5. Justin Fields

After a slow opening month of the season in 2022, Fields reeled off nine consecutive QB1 scoring weeks on the back of an incredible rushing profile. Fields rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games, pacing all quarterbacks in rushing points per game (10.8). We should see regression in his rushing efficiency since Fields had the most rushing yards ever for a quarterback on runs of 20 or more yards (429). Any regression in that area could be a big swing as Fields was 20th in passing points per attempt (0.427) and 40th in passing points per game (9.1). The positive end is that the Bears have invested by adding D.J. Moore to elevate his passing output while adding Darnell Wright at offensive tackle to offer more protection up front.

6. Justin Herbert

Everything that could go wrong for Herbert did in 2022. After touchdown rates of 5.2% and 5.7% over his first two seasons, Herbert posted a 3.6% touchdown rate this past season. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 9.9 yards per completion, and took a sack on 5.2% of his dropbacks, all the worst rates of his early career. From a rushing perspective, Herbert rushed the fewest times per game over his first three years in the league (3.2 attempts per game). He averaged 2.7 yards per rush after 4.3 yards and 4.8 yards per run in his first two seasons. Herbert suffered a chest fracture in September that he played through and then a torn labrum in January. Outside of his injuries, the Chargers had all of Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams on the field together for just 20 total plays last season. Herbert took just 175 dropbacks last season with both Allen and Williams on the field, but he still showed his upside when he had playmakers available. With both Allen and Williams on the field, Herbert was third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, second in success rate, and led the league in completion rate.

7. Joe Burrow

The QB4 in points per game (21.9), Burrow showcased a higher floor last season than during his breakout the year prior. He had seven top-six scoring weeks in 2022 after just three in 2021. Working with attachment to the best trio of wideouts in the league (including attachment to a top-five fantasy pick overall in consensus ADP), Burrow avoided taking sacks as the season went on while the Bengals added another offensive line upgrade in Orlando Brown this offseason.

8. Trevor Lawrence

Things came together for Lawrence after a slow start in his second NFL season. Through eight weeks the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence were struggling. Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes (27th) for 6.6 yards per pass attempt (23rd). Lawrence’s 84.8 rating was 22nd over that span, sandwiched between Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan. Lawrence had 10 passing touchdowns and six interceptions over his opening eight games. Over the final 11 games of the season, Lawrence completed 67.7% of his passes (seventh) for 7.1 yards per attempt (17th) with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His 97.5 rating was seventh in the league over that span while ranking fifth among all quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback (0.14). Lawrence had eight QB1 scoring weeks over his final 12 regular season starts. The addition of Calvin Ridley gives Lawrence another potential weapon in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.

9. Deshaun Watson

Watson was downright rough when he was finally able to play last season. Over his six starts to close the season, Watson completed a career-low 58.2% of his passes. He also would have had career-low marks in yards per pass attempt (6.5), yards per completion (11.1), and touchdown rate (4.1%) while his 2.9% interception rate was his highest since his rookie season. Watson has a full offseason to recalibrate himself moving forward in this offense, and the Cleveland offensive line, which was a mess to close the season on top of his struggles, should improve. Despite the step of blind faith that Watson can recapture his previous fantasy success, he is the archetype of quarterback we look to invest in for fantasy when the price dips. Watson still rushed for 29.2 yards per game, eighth among passers with multiple starts.

10. Dak Prescott

Coming off the worst fantasy season of his career. Prescott was the QB16 in points per game (16.6). His 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 238.3 passing yards per game were his lowest in a season since 2017. Turning 30 this July, Prescott’s rushing output has fallen off the map, which adds more dependence on having his passing efficiency rebound. The good news is the Cowboys added Brandin Cooks as a direct target upgrade over the loss of Dalton Schultz to aid a potential bounceback.