Week 16 Monday Night Football: What do the Colts need to make the playoffs?
Indianapolis faces the 49ers Monday night on the outside looking in, with little margin for error in a crowded AFC playoff race.
The race to reach the NFL postseason is approaching its conclusion, although there is still plenty to be decided when it comes to which teams will feature in the playoffs, particularly in the AFC. Ahead of the Monday Night Football clash between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16, only two of the seven AFC postseason participants are known, with the Colts one of several franchises still hoping to sneak in.
The Colts’ AFC South chances
At one stage earlier this season, the Colts looked odds-on to bag one of those playoff spots. Shane Steichen’s team was 8-2 through 10 games but has taken its eye off the ball in spectacular fashion in recent weeks, losing four straight games to slump to 8-6. They can still force their way into the postseason, but they are very much on the outside looking in.
Indianapolis sits third in the AFC South, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) and the Houston Texans (10-5), both of whom they still have to play. To have any chance of winning the division, which is incredibly unlikely, they must win their remaining three games and hope the Jaguars lose their final two. Unfortunately for the Colts, Jacksonville faces the hapless Tennessee Titans (2-12) in Week 18.
Tiebreakers working against Indianapolis
As it stands, the Colts trail 0-1 in head-to-head games, the first tiebreaker, against both the Jaguars and the Texans. Wins against those two franchises would level the series, which could then bring division records into play if any of the teams remained tied.
Indianapolis is currently 2-2 against division rivals, while the Jaguars are 3-1 and the Texans 4-1. The Colts could still get to 4-2, but they would then be dependent on Jacksonville losing to Tennessee and the Texans finishing the regular season with a worse overall record, or with a worse record in common games.
The Colts’ best hope of reaching the postseason
The Colts’ best hope of reaching the playoffs is by clinching one of the three Wild Card spots, currently held by the Los Angeles Chargers (11-4), Buffalo Bills (11-4) and Texans (10-5). If Indianapolis loses to the 49ers on Monday, it will fall to 8-7 and will only be able to catch Houston by winning its final two games and hoping its AFC South rivals stumble.
As mentioned, that scenario would see the Colts and Texans tied on overall record and division record, which would then bring the third tiebreaker, common games, into play.
A win over San Francisco, then, is almost imperative if Indianapolis is to have any chance of keeping its postseason hopes alive.
How the 49ers could clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC
On the other side of the field, the 49ers (10-4) are in a much healthier position. Kyle Shanahan’s team has already clinched a playoff spot in the NFC despite holding only the third-best record in the NFC West, behind the Seattle Seahawks (12-3), the current No. 1 seed, and the Los Angeles Rams (11-4).
If they win out and other results fall their way, the Niners could yet clinch the top seed. That would require the Seahawks to lose their remaining two games and the Rams and Chicago Bears (11-4) to slip up as well.
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