Week 17 NFL picks: Can Chicago shock San Francisco, and who else is fighting for playoff spots?

The year 2025 will likely be remembered as the moment artificial intelligence became a mainstream conversation, or as the year sports betting crossed into uncomfortable territory for fans and leagues alike. Both cases have strong arguments. But it is the first one that has taken a seat at the table this week.

When AI stopped being a future promise

AI entered everyday life the way most big cultural shifts do, with an awkward sentence at a social gathering. “Have you seen what it can do?” Few people really knew what that meant, yet everyone had an opinion. Over time, curiosity turned into familiarity. AI stopped being the domain of specialists and became part of daily life, as routine as checking the weather or sitting in traffic.

Sports, which often arrive early at cultural intersections, were quick to offer their own version of the moment. This week, the NFL did something that seemed minor but turned out to be deeply revealing. ESPN aired an alternate Monday Night Football broadcast called Playbook.

It did not change the rules or invent a new sport. It did something subtler. It shifted the focus.

For decades, sports television has explained the immediate past. What happened, why it happened, and where it all fell apart. Playbook nudged the broadcast half a second forward. Before the snap, the screen displayed pass probabilities, blitz risk, and offensive tendencies by formation. Not certainties, but probabilities updating in real time. This is the same kind of information a quarterback processes while appearing calm and doing rapid math internally.

The star of the night was not Philip Rivers throwing touchdown passes at age 44 like retirement was a time capsule. The spotlight belonged to an artificial intelligence system trying to think like him, or at least like someone who has seen countless defenses disguise their intentions.

Inside the system changing the broadcast

The platform behind it is called TruPlay AI, trained on more than one million plays from the NFL and college football. To put that in perspective, a full-time starting quarterback might throw 500 to 600 passes in an entire season. This system has seen more football than any human could process across multiple careers.

It also integrates Next Gen Stats data, which tracks every player’s precise location several times per second. The result is a constantly shifting read, much like a fan’s confidence on third-and-long.

This project did not come from a lab detached from the game. Adrenaline, the company behind the technology, brought in former Cowboys All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee to translate defensive instincts into models. What used to be a gut feeling is now expressed as a percentage. Instinct turned into data, or data attempting to look like instinct.

ESPN quickly understood that numbers alone would not work. That is why former players like Dan Orlovsky and Luke Kuechly were placed alongside Field Yates. Their job was not to worship the machine but to challenge it. To point out when the probabilities matched human reads and when they did not.

That is where things get uncomfortable. While AI processes millions of plays, the average fan still trusts a hunch formed by vibes and a couple of beers. Playbook did not come to embarrass anyone, but it did come to confront us. It reminded viewers that the game has always been more complex than we like to believe.

This was the year AI became everyday conversation because it stopped promising distant futures and started explaining uncomfortable presents, at work, at home, and in sports. The NFL did not use AI to predict outcomes. It used it to remind us of something more unsettling. The game starts before the ball moves, and for years, we have been watching a second too late.

The good news is that football still finds ways to rebel. AI can suggest a pass and the running back slams into the line. It can warn of a blitz and the quarterback calmly delivers a strike. From the couch, we still say, “I knew it.” Even if now we know we did not.

Game of the week in Week 17

Bears at 49ers (-3)

Chicago isn’t just having a good season, it’s having a season that rattles expectations.

The Bears were not supposed to be here, yet they enter Week 17 at 11-4, with a playoff spot secured and a legitimate shot at winning the NFC North for the first time since 2018.

That does not automatically make them contenders. It makes them a problem.

Chicago is the first team in NFL history to win six games after trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. That speaks to resilience. Flukes do not last 15 weeks. The comeback against Green Bay, down 10 points in the fourth quarter, felt less like a miracle and more like habit. Caleb Williams did not dominate. He managed. The defense did not overwhelm. It survived. Green Bay went 0-for-5 in the red zone. That is how uncomfortable games are won, and how teams no one trusted end up in the playoffs.

The context, however, matters.

This version of Chicago faces its first true measuring stick on the road, in prime time, against a team that is not discovering itself. San Francisco is not a surprise. It is the standard. Brock Purdy is coming off a 295-yard, five-touchdown performance. Christian McCaffrey topped 100 yards again. George Kittle did what he always does when games matter.

Both teams are 11-4. Both are playoff-bound. They are not in the same phase of the journey.

Since 1990, at least four teams that missed the playoffs the year before have qualified every season. Since 1996, in 27 of the past 30 seasons, at least one team has gone from last place in its division to the postseason. Chicago fits that history perfectly. San Francisco fits another category entirely, teams that measure seasons by conference titles.

Sunday night is not a test of belief for the Bears. It is a test of scale. Chicago can win and keep dreaming about the NFC’s top seed. It can lose and still be fundamentally fine.

Every surprise season reaches this moment. The point where it stops being charming and starts being judged harshly. For Chicago, that moment is now, under the lights, against a team that does not forgive mistakes and does not believe in fairy tales.

Pick: Bears 20-30 49ers

Week 17 picks in brief

Cowboys (-7) at Commanders: The NFL delivers a lump of coal on Christmas Day. Nothing at stake, nothing enticing. Cowboys 24-21 Commanders

Lions (-6) at Vikings: Detroit is desperate to recover wins it let slip earlier, including last Sunday night. Lions 30-14 Vikings

Broncos (-12.5) at Chiefs: What once looked like a marquee matchup now risks becoming a Denver blowout. Broncos 20-7 Chiefs

Chargers (-2.5) at Texans: A critical Saturday game for playoff positioning. I do not trust the battered Chargers line against Houston’s defense. Chargers 17-21 Texans

Packers (-2.5) at Ravens: If Baltimore has taught us anything in 2025, it is their inability to protect leads. Packers 28-24 Ravens

Bengals (-7) at Cardinals: Nothing meaningful on the line. Expect plenty of points for Fantasy purposes. Bengals 33-30 Cardinals

Steelers (-4.5) at Browns: Cleveland played well late against Buffalo but came up short. Pittsburgh is starting to look playoff-ready. Steelers 20-17 Browns

Buccaneers (-5.5) at Dolphins: I do not see Quinn Ewers tripping up a Tampa Bay team desperate for a Week 18 showdown. Bucs 30-14 Dolphins

Jaguars (-7) at Colts: Philip Rivers has been a nice Christmas story. Jacksonville is one of the season’s best stories. Jaguars 30-24 Colts

Patriots (-13.5) at Jets: A win moves New England closer to the division title, and the Jets will not stop it. Patriots 24-10 Jets

Seahawks (-7.5) at Panthers: The Seahawks have clinched a playoff place, while the Panthers are almost there. Seattle is several steps ahead in the chase for the Lombardi trophy. Seahawks 35-20 Panthers

Saints (-2.5) at Titans: Avoid this one. Heavy boredom content. Saints 17-14 Titans

Raiders (-1.5) at Giants: The game both teams secretly want to lose for draft position. Raiders 14-17 Giants

Eagles at Bills: One of the week’s best games. Josh Allen’s ankle is a concern, but Buffalo needs this to stay in the division race. Eagles 27-30 Bills

Rams (-8.5) at Falcons: The Rams are fighting for the NFC’s top spot, which is motivation enough against Atlanta. Rams 28-21 Falcons

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