Week 4 NFL picks: Another loss on the cards for the Chiefs?

Last Sunday, I repeated a ritual shared by millions: couch, TV, a mountain of nachos, and rivers of Diet Coke - because calorie denial is part of the game too. That home-stadium feast was the backdrop for a marathon day of National Football League action, where you can swing from euphoria to heartbreak faster than a kicker sends the ball through the uprights… or misses.

In Philadelphia, one of those games unfolded that weighs heavier on a city’s soul than on the standings. Rams vs Eagles - a rematch of the 2024 playoffs. And just when the script seemed written for Los Angeles to seal the win with a last-second field goal, Jordan Davis rewrote it. The 344-pound defensive lineman defied logic - and public perception - by blocking the kick and rumbling downfield like he’d just stolen a Fabergé egg.

The play is already etched into the memory of this young season. Davis didn’t just block the attempt - he scooped it up like lunch and sprinted into the end zone. Philly won 33-26 and stayed undefeated. But beyond the scoreboard, Davis reminded us of something we often forget: nothing is impossible, especially when you’re carrying labels that don’t reflect your true talent.

That man who looked too big to run? He clocked 4.78 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Combine and hit speeds of 18.6 mph on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field. Don’t let the scale fool you. A body doesn’t define the limits of greatness. I say this from experience. I weigh 143 pounds today and play dress-up as a champion marathon runner, but there was a version of me that tipped the scales at over 220 - and still dreamed of reaching the end zone. So when I saw Davis streak across the field like Saquon Barkley, I remembered: we all have an “impossible” inside us, waiting to be unleashed.

We love to judge. We see size and make snap calls: “He can’t run. He can’t win. He can’t do it.” Until they do. Babe Ruth, Andy Ruiz, Shaquille O’Neal, Butterbean - and now Davis. They defied the labels and wrote history, turning weight from stigma into weapon.

The irony? While that play wrecked my most important prediction of the week - and made me picture the suffering of my friend Ramón Treviño, the only Rams fan I know - it also handed me a lesson. It doesn’t matter how many nachos you’ve downed, or how many pounds you’ve gained or lost in your life - there’s always a moment to prove that “impossible” is just a dare waiting to be answered.

Game of the Week

• Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs

Sometimes the biggest matchups lose a little shine - but gain a whole lot of intrigue. Sunday afternoon is one of those cases, as two wounded heavyweights square off in a game dripping with narrative. Baltimore and Kansas City meet at Arrowhead with matching 1-2 records - a mark that, in September, smells like existential drama.

Both teams entered the season as Super Bowl contenders. Now they’re playing like the mirror is showing them a version they don’t recognize.

The Patrick Mahomes-Lamar Jackson rivalry has defined the last five years. Since 2018, the Chiefs and Ravens rank first and second in total offense across the NFL. But while Mahomes stacks rings, Lamar has just one win against Kansas City. Every matchup between them is a reminder of how close they are - and how far Baltimore seems when it’s time to close.

This game is critical for both AFC franchises. Since 2000, only three teams have started 1-2 and gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Still, who’s bold enough to write off either of these squads in September? The NFL thrives on nail-biters, and this season has already delivered 15 games decided in the final three minutes or overtime-a record for Week 3. Arrowhead looks ready to join that list of heart-stoppers.

The Ravens feel like they should be 3-0 - but they’ve shot themselves in the foot. The Chiefs arrive with their aura cracked, more vulnerable than ever. Still, betting against Mahomes is usually a bad idea. Unfortunately, I’m a man of bad ideas.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

Quick picks

• Seahawks (-1.5) at Cardinals

Arizona is that friend who swears they’re starting a diet every Monday… and ends up elbow-deep in tacos by Tuesday. Too many drops, not enough accuracy. Seattle, even with the short trip, is the grown-up in the room.

Prediction: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 21

• Vikings (-2.5) vs Steelers (Dublin)

Ireland knows pubs and bar fights, but not much about American football. Rodgers vs the Vikings defense sounds like a classic NFC showdown - except now he’s with the Steelers, a team that, despite its record, feels like flat beer.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Steelers 21

• Saints at Bills (-16)

This one’s like a world champion boxer facing a sparring partner. New Orleans might need divine intervention to avoid a double-digit loss.

Prediction: Bills 30, Saints 17

• Chargers (-6.5) at Giants

Herbert throws like he’s playing Madden. The Giants debut rookie QB Jaxson Dart, who has the tools to spark hope in New York - but growing pains are real.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Giants 21

• Commanders (-1.5) at Falcons

Atlanta keeps dialing up the worst plays - and it’s already cost an offensive coach his job. Washington is more balanced, and that’ll be enough.

Prediction: Commanders 24, Falcons 21

• Eagles (-3.5) at Buccaneers

Philly is soaring, while Tampa keeps surviving nail-biters. Problem is, luck runs out.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Bucs 21

• Browns at Lions (-8.5)

Detroit plays like a well-oiled machine. Cleveland? More like a neighborhood garage - despite their surprise win in Green Bay.

Prediction: Lions 24, Browns 10

• Patriots (-5.5) at Panthers

Carolina is the perfect victim for another snooze-fest lesson from New England.

Prediction: Patriots 14, Panthers 10

• Titans at Texans (-7)

Neighborhood rivalry. Tennessee misses its power days; Houston is still waiting for its offense to take off.

Prediction: Texans 21, Titans 17

• Jaguars at 49ers (-3)

San Francisco feels like a hospital ward, but they’ll keep the undefeated streak alive.

Prediction: 49ers 24, Jaguars 17

• Colts at Rams (-3.5)

Daniel Jones is now “Indiana Jones” with the Colts at 3-0, but this movie gets a sad chapter when he meets an elite, punishing defense. Ramón: your team finally wins.

Prediction: Rams 30, Colts 17

• Bears at Raiders (-1)

Chicago has stopped collecting losses, and Caleb Williams finally looks like the star he was meant to be.

Prediction: Bears 20, Raiders 10

• Packers (-7) at Cowboys

Green Bay has been Texas’ nightmare since the Favre era. Now with Micah Parsons on their side, the Packers remain the Lone Star State’s worst dream.

Prediction: Packers 30, Cowboys 21

• Jets at Dolphins (-2.5)

This matchup between winless teams is so unappealing, tickets are going for $28.

Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 21

• Bengals at Broncos (-7)

Denver occasionally flashes back to the ’90s. Cincinnati? Still looks like the same old Bengals.

Prediction: Broncos 20, Bengals 14

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