Cowboys
What the Cowboys need to make the playoffs: What they need to happen to get a Wild Card spot
After winning their last two games, the Dallas Cowboys have done what they do best - gotten fans' hopes up, this time for the possibility of a postseason.
Just when the Dallas Cowboys' playoff hopes looked lost, they beat the Washington Commanders on the road. Seeing that the next game was against their much less difficult rival, fans began to wonder if hope was not completely gone. And what do you know? The following week, the Cowboys got their first home win of the season over the New York Giants.
“Everybody counted us out,” said Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons after the Thanksgiving victory “And it was just like enough is enough. We know what we got. We know what we can do here. And I believe in every one of these guys. I believe we’re going to turn it around and make a run.”
Now, with just five games left and the Cowboys sitting at 5-7, there actually is a chance they could make it to the postseason. But...that chance is still slim, so I wouldn’t go getting as excited as Parsons there. Going from a 3% to a 4-5% chance of making the playoffs after beating one of the worst teams in the NFL is an improvement, but not an immaculate one, after all.
So let’s take a closer look at these odds and just exactly what the Cowboys would need to happen in order to clinch a Wild Card berth.
Cowboys basically need to be perfect
The NFC East is way out of reach at this point with the Eagles comfortably in the lead. But the Cowboys pretty much need a perfect finish to the season, and even then, they’ll need help from the rest of the NFC to even have a chance for a spot in the playoffs as they are still No. 12 in the NFC standings.
They probably need at least nine wins, which means going at least 4-1 over their last five games. Two of those games are against teams with losing records, one is against a team at .500, and the next two are against their division rivals Commanders and Eagles.
Let’s not forget, they need those wins without their starting quarterback Dak Prescott, who’s out for the season with Cooper Rush under center.
Here’s a look at the Cowboys' remaining schedule:
| Week | Opponent | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | 4-8 |
| 15 | @ Carolina Panthers | 3-9 |
| 16 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-6 |
| 17 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 10-2 |
| 18 | vs Washington Commanders | 8-5 |
To get at least four wins, they’ll need to get healthy, stop committing so many turnovers, and for Rush to play better than he ever has before.
Let’s break down these games
Week 14 vs Bengals: Quarterback Joe Burrow is going to be a tough one for the Cowboys to beat. He leads the league in passing yards (3,337) and passing touchdowns (30). The Bengals are struggling though, at 4-8, having lost three in a row after Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. The Cowboys defense will need to exploit the Bengals' o-line issues and get to Burrow before he can get to his offensive weapons Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase.
Week 15 @ Panthers: The Panthers are at 3-9, but the Cowboys cannot make the mistake of underestimating them. Quarterback Bryce Young has been playing way better after getting the starting job back. He’s thrown for 858 yards and five touchdowns to just one interception in the last four games. They nearly beat the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, losing by a missed field goal in the last second. Still, the Panthers defense shouldn’t present too much of a problem for Dallas. It’s a must-win game as a loss here would likely eliminate the Cowboys from playoff contention right away.
Week 16 v s Bucs: While Baker Mayfield and his receivers could be a problem, the real issue for the Dallas defense is going to come in the form of running back duo Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. If they can win this one, Dallas can stay alive in the playoff race.
Week 17 @ Eagles: I simply cannot see a world in which Dallas wins this one. Between Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, the Cowboys defense is going to be on that struggle bus. Unlike the other teams Dallas will face before them, the Philly defense is as good as their offense. If they lose, but can manage a second win over Washington, however, they could still have a shot.
Week 18 vs Commanders: This game could be critical for Dallas to make the postseason. The Commanders currently hold the Wild Card spot, but the Bucs, Cardinals, and Rams are gaining on them. A win against this division rival to end the season will be a positive, playoff or not.
What the Cowboys need from the other NFC teams
None of that will be enough, however, if the rest of the NFC still tops the Cowboys. Here’s what they need from the others.
- Commanders to flop: Dallas needs the Commanders to lose at least two of their final three games against the Titans, Saints, and Falcons before playing Dallas. The Cowboys currently hold the tiebreaker.
- Bucs to lose to Chargers (and Cowboys, obviously)
- Seahawks or Cardinals to flop: The Cowboys need one of these NFC West teams to knock the other one out of the race
- One of the NFC North teams to flop: The Packers, Lions, and Vikings need to at least drop down in the rankings to open up a potential spot.
The Cowboys need a lot of things to go right to even have a chance at making the playoffs this year. But the most important thing they can do is not flop themselves at this point, at least to set the tone for the next season by not rolling over.
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