Who will the Rams play in the playoffs? Breaking down NFC Wild Card paths

The Los Angeles Rams are in the playoffs, but where they land, and who they face, is still up in the air heading into Week 18. After a surprising loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the Rams’ margin for error shrank significantly. Now, the final weekend of the regular season, when they face the Arizona Cardinals, will determine whether Los Angeles opens the postseason on the road or stays closer to home, and whether they draw a familiar rival or a far tougher matchup.

Where the Rams stand entering Week 18

The Rams enter the final week at 11-5, currently sitting in the NFC’s sixth seed. They cannot win the NFC West and cannot earn a first-round bye, but they can still move up to No. 5 depending on how several games break across the conference.

Here’s what’s locked in:

• The Rams are guaranteed a playoff spot
• The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed
• The Rams can finish No. 5 or No. 6

Current NFC standings ahead of Week 18 games:

1. Seahawks (can move down to No. 5)
2. Bears (can move down to No. 3)
3. Eagles (can move up to No. 2)
4. Panthers or Buccaneers (winner will be locked into No. 4)
5. 49ers (can move up to No. 1 or down to No. 6)
6. Rams (can move up to No. 5)
7. Packers (locked into No.7)

How the Rams move up to the No. 5 seed

The Rams’ clearest path to improving their position involves help from the San Francisco 49ers. Los Angeles can move up to the No. 5 seed if:

• The Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals, and
• The San Francisco 49ers lose to the Seattle Seahawks

If both the Rams and Niners finish 12-5, Los Angeles wins the tiebreaker over San Francisco due to a better record against common opponents, giving them the edge in the standings.

That scenario would send the Rams on the road to face the NFC South champion (Panthers or Buccaneers), rather than a higher-seeded NFC powerhouse.

What happens if the Rams stay at No. 6

If the Rams beat Arizona but the 49ers also win (vs Seahawks), or if Los Angeles loses outright, the Rams will remain the No. 6 seed. As the sixth seed, Los Angeles would face one of the NFC’s top teams in the Wild Card round, most likely:

• Philadelphia Eagles (if Philly finishes No. 3), or
• Chicago Bears (if Chicago slides to No. 3)

That’s a significantly tougher path, especially against teams with elite defenses and strong home-field advantages.

Full Rams Week 18 playoff scenarios

Here’s how it breaks down:

• Rams win + 49ers lose
  • Rams finish No. 5
  • Road game vs NFC South champion (Panthers or Buccaneers)
• Rams win + 49ers win
  • Rams finish No. 6
  • Road game vs No. 3 seed (Eagles or Bears)
• Rams lose
  • Rams finish No. 6
  • Road game vs No. 3 seed (Eagles or Bears)

Why the No. 5 seed matters for Los Angeles

The difference between the No. 5 and No. 6 seed is massive.

As the No. 5 seed:

• The Rams would face a division winner with a losing or near-.500 record
• Possible matchups include Tampa Bay or Carolina
• The path to the Divisional Round is far more manageable

As the No. 6 seed:

• The Rams likely face a 11- or 12-win team immediately
• A long road through cold-weather environments becomes likely
• Upset potential exists, but the margin for error shrinks

The Rams are expected to be heavy favorites at home against the 3-13 Cardinals, making the bigger question whether they’ll get the help they need from the Seattle Seahawks. If they do, Los Angeles could find itself with one of the most favorable Wild Card matchups in the NFC. If not, they’ll need to be ready to play spoiler on the road against a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Kickoff between the Rams and Cardinals is set for this Sunday, January 4 at 4:25 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium.

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