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2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open preview: Odds, picks, predictions, prize money

In-form duo Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy headline a star-studded field at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.

In-form duo Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy headline a star-studded field at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.
Christian PetersenAFP

It’s shaping up to be quite a few days in Arizona, with the Super Bowl 2023 between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles taking place just a matter of miles away from the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. The wildest event on the PGA Tour – and indeed any tour – coincides with the NFL showpiece every year but rarely are they held within such close proximity of one another. Phoenix and its surroundings will be some place to be this weekend.

As far as the golf goes, we know what to expect from the Waste Management Phoenix Open by now. It’s the one week of the year when raucous crowds are encouraged rather than frowned upon, especially at the par three 16th hole, where poor shots and booed and holes-in-one send beers flying into the sky. Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen flashed considerable amounts of skin in celebration of holing putts in the 16th green last year (not totally sure what the odds on that happening were).

What is the prize money at the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open?

As for the serious stuff, there is a much stronger field this week compared to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, which was won by Justin Rose. That was the Englishman’s first victory in four years, with Viktor Hovland the only one of the favourites to even finish in the top 20 (Jordan Spieth finished tied for 63rd and US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut). Most of the big guns are back for this one, which is reflected in the prize money. The total tournament purse is $20 million, with the winner taking home $3.6 million.

What are the odds for TPC Scottsdale?

Former world number one Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion. His win at Scottsdale last year was his first on the PGA Tour but was quickly followed by another three in the space of two months, including the Masters. Scheffler edged out Patrick Cantlay in a playoff, with the duo finishing a shot ahead of Brooks Koepa and Xander Schauffle. History suggests that the big names tend to well in Phoenix, which bodes well for Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, who are the bookmakers’ favourites by some distance. The Spaniard has finished in the top eight in his last eight starts, which have yielded four victories. The Northern Irishman, meanwhile, has won three of his last eight events and hasn’t finished outside the top eight either.

The top five with most bookmakers are:

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy +800
Jon Rahm +800
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Xander Schauffle +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1800


2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open prediction

Rahm and McIlroy are the sensible – if totally predictable and unimaginative – picks to win, such is the way they’ve been playing. If you’re looking for an outside bet, Tom Kim’s (+3000) excellent mid-iron play means he should be in for a good week. Rookie Taylor Montgomery (+5000) is another man in form having finished in the top 15 in eight of his first 10 starts on tour.