AJ can’t beat Usyk says Nelson

Oleksandr Usyk has stormed the heavyweight division, shocking nearly everyone on his blazing rise. Concerns over his size were swept aside. Doubts over his punching power were put emphatically to rest. And while there are those who think Tyson Fury will take him in their rematch, there are others who think that a rejuvenated Anthony Joshua can reclaim his titles in a third bout with the White Rabbit. But it is far from certain.

Does Anthony Joshua really have what it takes to stand toe-to-toe with Oleksandr Usyk in a third fight? It’s a question that’s been tossed around more times than a used gym towel. “The AJ we’ve seen in the last couple of fights, going in there with belief and self-confidence, will he have the same belief and self-confidence going in there with Usyk knowing this man has beaten him twice?” Johnny Nelson’s words hang in the air like a bad smell, hard to ignore, impossible to dismiss. The truth is, that old AJ, the one everyone hopes might show up, is no guarantee against Usyk. Not this time, maybe not ever.

When you break it down, Joshua’s odds don’t look great. Nelson, who’s seen his fair share of fighters rise and fall, didn’t sugarcoat it. “100 times, AJ beats Usyk five and Usyk has got his number,” he said. You can almost see him shaking his head, a veteran who knows the score. Sure, Joshua has that puncher’s chance, that small window where everything clicks, and the lights go out for Usyk. But let’s not kid ourselves—those moments are fleeting and rare, especially when you’re up against a guy who seems to have your blueprint down to a science.

Joshua’s been on a journey, or at least that’s what we’ve been told. Eddie Hearn has been selling the story of a fighter reborn, a man who’s learned from his mistakes, ready to climb back to the top. But if you look past the shiny packaging, you might see something else—a fighter who’s been coasting on weak opposition, collecting wins that don’t really mean what they should. It’s like painting over rust; it might look fine from a distance, but get close enough, and the cracks start to show.

It’s no secret that the opponents Hearn lined up for Joshua were hardly the kind to bring out the best in a man. Wallin, Ngannou, Helenius—names that hardly send a shiver down your spine. Beating them might fill up the win column, but it doesn’t do much for a fighter’s growth, especially one who’s supposed to be on a comeback. It’s a bit like playing chess against someone who’s only just learned how the pieces move—sure, you’ll win, but does it really make you any better?

The narrative that Joshua has been rebuilt, that he’s somehow been returned to his prime, is a tough pill to swallow. The talk of a “factory version” of AJ being rolled out, the one from 2013 who could bulldoze his way through anyone, seems more like wishful thinking than reality. Nothing about Joshua’s recent fights suggests he’s that guy anymore. He’s older, a little more worn, and has picked up some bad habits along the way, the kind that don’t just disappear overnight, no matter how many tune-up fights you win.

And if Joshua tries to throw caution to the wind, as he did against Wallin, Ngannou, and Helenius, you can bet Usyk will be ready to capitalize. Usyk’s not the type to let mistakes slide, and reckless abandon against a fighter of his caliber is more likely to end in a short night for Joshua than a heroic comeback. The idea that Joshua could suddenly revert to his old self, like a switch being flipped, is a comforting thought for fans, but boxing doesn’t work that way. It’s a game of inches, and right now, those inches aren’t in Joshua’s favor.

In the end, this third fight, if it happens, will be less about whether Joshua has rebuilt himself and more about whether he can overcome the mental and physical hurdles that Usyk has placed in front of him. And for all the talk of what Joshua could be, what he used to be, or what he might become, it’s hard to shake the feeling that Usyk has his number, and no amount of factory resets will change that.