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BOXING

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo odds and predictions: Who is the favorite?

With the fight set for Saturday, September 30th, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the odds for the bout between the Mexican and the American.

Update:
¿Cuánto cuestan y dónde comprar boletos para la pelea Canelo Álvarez vs Jermell Charlo?
SARAH STIERAFP

The Mexican comes into the fight as the favorite but it would be a mistake to underestimate his American opponent, who is a champion in his own right. In this undisputed fight, we’ve got as much anticipation as intrigue and that’s to say it’s going to be a good one.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermall Charlo: The Lay of the Land

In what will be the first of a new three-fight deal that he signed with PBC, Canelo Alvarez, the undisputed super middleweight champion will take on Jermell Charlo, the current undisputed light middleweight world champion in a 168-pound winner-takes-all bout. There’s a lot at stake in this fight, but there are a few key things to consider. For starters, this will be the first time in Charlo’s career that he is fighting at 168 pounds. More importantly, however, is the fact that this is also the first time in two years that the American is going to fight, having cited mental health concerns as the reason for his lengthy layoff.

Then there is the man in the other corner. Icon of Mexico and probably the pound-for-pound best fighter in boxing today, Canelo Alvarez is a monster of the sport. Though it’s true that some claim he’s lost a step, it would be silly to believe he isn’t worthy of being considered the favorite in this one. Interestingly, Canelo’s fight with Charlo has been talked about for some time, and in truth had the bout occurred two years ago, it’s quite likely that it would have been an uncertain one for the Mexican. Indeed, Charlo has shown in the past that he has the skillset required to challenge someone of Alvarez’s pedigree, but after such a long absence, we don’t know if that remains the case in the present.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermall Charlo: The Odds

FighterMoneyline Odds
Canelo Alvarez-430
Jermall Charlo+300

*At the time of writing, Canelo Alvarez is a -430 favorite (bet $430 to win $100) over fellow headliner and +300 underdog Jermell Charlo (bet $100 to win $300). As such, Alvarez has an implied win probability of 81.1%.*

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermall Charlo: The Prediction

With the fight falling on Mexican Independence Day Weekend, you can already imagine the kind of support that Canelo Alvarez is going to have when he steps into the ring. Of course, should he win it likely won’t be simply because of how many people he has behind him. No, it will be because he proves once more what we all know, which is that he’s as good as it gets. That idea, however, will undoubtedly be contributed to by the fact that Jermell Charlo hasn’t fought in two years. Truthfully, there is no way to ignore that when considering the outcome of this fight. That’s not to say he won’t cause Canelo concern, but ultimately between his lengthy hiatus and the size difference between him and Alvarez, it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the Mexican.